[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING...

Winds to gale force are expected this evening and overnight for
portions of the waters near the coast of Colombia along with seas
of 11-13 ft. Winds will then drop below gale force Thursday
morning. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast
under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING...

A cold front traversing the Atlantic waters will bring gale force
winds north of 30N between 52W-60W Thursday night and Friday
morning. Expect gale force SW winds prior to the frontal passage,
then shifting to NW following the frontal passage. Seas will
reach 12-16 ft in the area by early Friday morning. Please refer
to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 18N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and
within 60 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 14N southward.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W, from 21N
southward, moving W at 10-15 knots. Precipitation: Scattered
moderate and isolated strong from 10N-20N between 80W-90W,
including over portions of Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of southern
Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from
05N16W to 03N42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 330 nm
to the north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 27/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the western FL
panhandle near 31N85W to 29N89W to 27N94W, continuing as
stationary to Brownsville TX to a 1013 mb low over NE Mexico near
25N98W. The cold front stands out well in visible satellite
imagery, with a distinct line of clouds. Scattered moderate
rainshowers are offshore southern TX and northeast Mexico from
24N-27.5N within 120 nm of the coast. Surface ridging extends over
the Florida peninsula into the E Gulf. The ASCAT pass from earlier
on Wednesday shows strong to near gale NE winds behind the front
within 100 nm of the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

The eastern portion of the cold front will reach the FL peninsula
by Thu afternoon, while the western portion will retreat northward
as a warm front back over Texas. As the front dissipates Friday,
quiescent conditions will prevail Fri and Sat as weak ridging
builds in north of the Gulf. On Sun and Mon a new cold front will
move across the N and central Gulf, with enhanced NW to N winds
building in behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force winds are expected tonight near the coast of Colombia.
See section above for details. Two tropical waves are over the
Caribbean. See section above for details.

Relatively dry air and no significant precipitation are over the
basin, other than that due to the tropical waves. The ASCAT pass
from late Wednesday morning shows strong trades over the central
Caribbean from 10N-17N between 71W-80W, with locally near gales
closer to the coast of Colombia.

A moderate pressure gradient south of the Bermuda high will be
forcing strong to gale force winds across the S central Caribbean
and to near the coast of Colombia late tonight into early Thu.
>From Thu afternoon through at least Mon, a large extratropical
cyclone east of the mid-Atlantic states will reduce the gradient
and weaken the NE tradewinds to fresh breeze or less across the
Caribbean. On Sat large N swell will begin impacting the offshore
Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles and continue through
at least Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale-force winds are forecast Thu night and early Fri north of
30N between 52W-60W. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for
more details.

Surface ridging prevails from 20N-33N west of 60W. A stationary
front passes through 32N48W to a 1014 mb low near 26N54W. A
surface trough extends SW from the low to 21N60W. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is seen from along and within 180 nm
east of the front and trough from 22N-30N. Farther E, a warm front
extends from a 1018 mb low near 28N41W to 31N39W to 31N35W to
27N33W. Isolated showers are possible near this boundary.

Weakening high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift
eastward through early Thu in response to an approaching cold
front. This cold front will quickly move across the area Thu and
Fri with enhanced NW to N wind building in behind the front.
Associated large NW to N swell will spread across the area late
Fri and on Sat and diminish by early Mon. Significant wave heights
in excess of 12 ft are expected north of a line from 31N73W to
28N68W to 25N60W to 24N50W to 31N36W Fri and Sat. Significant wave
heights to 17 ft are forecast north of 29N between 50W-62W. After
winds become quiescent on Sat to early Sun, another cold front
will reach the far northwest waters Sun night and move across the
area through Mon. Strong to possibly gale force winds are expected
on either side of the front northeast of the Bahamas early next
week.

$$
Hagen
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