[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
559 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Surface high pressure will build over the
western Atlantic today and tonight. In response to a tightening
pressure gradient across the central Caribbean, trade winds will
strengthen to minimal gale force overnight into early Wed near
the coast of Colombia. Seas will build to 12-13 ft early Wed in
association with the expected gales. Looking ahead, another round
of minimal gales is possible late Wed night into early Thu. Please
refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 60W south of 16N, moving
west around 15 kt. The tropical wave is evident in TPW imagery,
model diagnostics, and infrared satellite imagery. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N
between 53W and 62W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 77W south of 18N,
moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 16N to 18N between 75W and 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes over the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 04N30W to
04N40W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
within 180 nm of the ITCZ east of 25W, and from 05N to 07N
between 40W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida
to 23N89W to 27N93W. Isolated showers are shown in radar imagery
between the Florida Keys and the northern coast of Cuba. Elsewhere,
1016 mb high pressure is centered near the Florida Big Bend. The
latest ship and buoy observations reveal moderate to fresh
southerly flow over the NW Gulf west of 90W, with seas generally
3-5 ft. Over the eastern Gulf, light to gentle winds prevail with
seas 3 ft or less.

An old frontal boundary from the Straits of Florida to the S
central Louisiana coast will dissipate today. Weak high pressure
over the NE Gulf will shift NE of the basin later this morning
with fresh to locally strong southerly return flow setting up in
the NW Gulf ahead of the next cold front. The cold front will move
into the NW Gulf early Wed, reaching from S Florida back NW to S
central Louisiana as a stationary front by early Fri where it
will gradually dissipate. The next cold front may move into the NW
Gulf Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for more information
on the Caribbean gale warning, and see the Tropical Waves section
above for details on wave activity in the central Caribbean.

Isolated shower activity persists over the central Caribbean well
offshore of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Elsewhere, dry
air prevails across the western Caribbean as noted in GOES-16
water vapor products. Strong easterly winds are likely ongoing
near the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela this
morning, while generally moderate trades continue across the rest
of the Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the basin,
except fresh to strong in the S central and W central portion.
Winds will peak at minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia
by early Wed, and again late Wed night into early Thu. The trades
will diminish by the end of the week into the weekend as high
pressure N of the area weakens. Fresh to strong NE flow will pulse
downwind of the Windward Passage, in the Lee of Cuba and the Lee
of the Dominican Republic through the next several days. A surge
of fresh to strong trades and large fresh seas will move across
the tropical N Atlantic S of 15N through early Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on wave
activity nearing the Windward Islands.

A cold front well north of the area across the central Atlantic
extends SW to 32N61W to 29N68W, where it transitions to a weakening
stationary front that continues across the central Bahamas to the
Straits of Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and lightning data
indicate scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring
within 180 nm SE of the cold front over the northern forecast
waters. Elsewhere, a weak surface trough was analyzed at 09 UTC NE
of the northern Bahamas. Another cold front extends SW across the
eastern Atlantic, enters the forecast waters near 32N25W, and
continues to 29N35W. Isolated shower activity is noted ahead of
this cold front. Elsewhere, a weak surface high pressure ridge
extends from 31N18W to 28N30W.

The stationary front will gradually weaken and dissipate through
tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. A cold
front is forecast to move across the basin Thu and Thu night with
fresh to strong W to NW winds affecting the NE waters, and
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere behind the front. Large
northerly swell is forecast to propagate across the waters E of
the Bahamas Fri through Sat night. Another cold front will
approach the NW portion late Sat night with increasing SW flow
ahead of it.

$$
Reinhart
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