[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 55W from 02N-16N,
moving W at around 15 kt. The tropical wave shows up well in TPW
imagery, model diagnostics and the visible imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N-15N between 50W-59W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 74W from
09N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the northern portion of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over Africa, meeting the ITCZ near
10N15W. The ITCZ continues through 04N30W to 06N50W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails across the ITCZ mainly between 22W-
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits 24N80W to 23N82W,
then becomes stationary from that point to a 1011 mb surface low
near 21N95W. Scattered showers prevail along the cold front.
Surface ridge is building in the wake of the front, anchored by a
1014 mb high centered near 26N89W. Scatterometer data depict light
to gentle winds across the basin.

The frontal system weaken through tonight. Relatively weak high
pressure north of the front will shift northeast of the basin by
early Tue. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf by
early Wed, then weaken and become stationary in the northern Gulf
by Wed night. Moderate to fresh southeast return flow will prevail
across the western Gulf Thu through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

The basin is relatively quiet with drier air prevailing through
the area. The latest scatterometer pass depicts moderate trades
across most of the basin except over the northwest portion, where
light winds prevail.

Gentle to moderate trades will increase to fresh speeds tonight,
then to strong speeds in the central Caribbean on Tue. Pulses of
fresh to strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage, Lee
of Cuba, and Lee of Dominican Republic are expected by mid-week.
Building seas with these winds will subside through the end of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N66W to
24N80W. A pre-frontal trough is noted in scatterometer data
extending from 30N64W to 25N72W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the front and trough mainly north of 28N. To the east,
another cold front extends across the east Atlantic, from 31N33W
to 25N42W. Scattered showers are also noted along this front.
Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. Latest scatterometer data
and surface observations depict moderate to fresh easterly north
of the ITCZ from 33W-60W.

The front across the west Atlantic will become stationary and
weaken by this evening. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front. The next front is forecast to move across the forecast
waters on Thu followed by fresh to strong west to northwest
winds, and by large northerly swell. Mainly fresh northerly winds
are expected across the west Atlantic in the wake of the front by
Fri, with large northwest to north swell.

$$

ERA
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