[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191907 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 1500 UTC, Tropical Storm Sebastien has formed and it is
expected to remain over open waters. Sebastein is located near
20.1N 58.7W or about 275 nm NE of the Leeward Islands, moving
toward the NNW at about 7 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1008
mb. The maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt with gusts up to 50
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 250 nm
SE of the center and scattered moderate convection 200 nm NE of
the low. ASCAT show gale force winds in the NE quad from 18N-21N
between 55W-59W. A turn to the north is expected on Wednesday
followed by a turn to the northeast and an increase in forward
speed Wednesday night. Some slight strengthening is possible over
the next day or so. Sebastien is expected to become absorbed by a
cold front in a couple of days. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO header MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 12N southward,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 00N-06N between 34W-44W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 19N southward,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Isolated showers are along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 02N23W to
02N33W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02S-09N
between 13W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Two 1015 mb surface high is over the southwestern Gulf, near
23N92W. Weak surface ridging covers most of the Gulf, along with
relatively dry air. Scatterometer show the light to moderate
winds across the basin with no significant convection noted at
this time. Weak high pressure over the western Gulf will shift NE
through Wed. Fresh to strong SE return flow will develop over the
NW Gulf Wed through Thu. A cold front will move off the Texas
coast late Fri, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds Fri
night into Sat. The front will rapidly move across the basin, and
begin to weaken as it reaches the far SE Gulf Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, from 31N65W
to the Windward Passage near 19N74W. A surface trough continues
to the eastern coast of Jamaica to 18N76W to 14N80W. Scattered
moderate convection remains to the north of the Windward Passage
while scattered showers extend 60 nm on either side of the trough.
Broken multilayered clouds and scattered showers are to the west
and northwest of the surface trough. ASCAT shows light east winds
across the central Caribbean and light to moderate northerly wind
in the NW Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Storm Sebastien will move to 21.0N 59.2W this evening,
22.2N 60.0W Wed morning, then continue moving northward away from
the area. Elsewhere, a weak trough extending from the Windward
Passage across eastern Jamaica and into the SW Caribbean will
dissipate tonight. A tropical wave will weaken late tonight into
Wed as it moves across the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE
winds will prevail through the Windward Passage Wed night through
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Storm Sebastien.

A surface trough extends from 28N67W to near 22N73W in the SE
Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
along the trough axis. Further E, a stationary front passes
through the Atlantic Ocean, from 31N65W to the Windward Passage
near 19N74W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
along the front from the Windward Passage near 19N73W to 24N68W.
Surface high pressure ridging covers the Atlantic elsewhere east
of 55W, anchored by a 1030 mb high near 32N38W. ASCAT support
moderate to fresh east to southeast wind cover the Atlantic from
12N-28N between 18W-62W.

The stationary front is expected to dissipate later today or
tonight. Another forming cold front will quickly move across the
northern waters tonight through Wed night, with fresh to strong W
to NW winds developing behind the front. Sebastien will become
merged into the frontal system by Thu night. High pressure will
build across the northern waters Thu through Sat. Yet another cold
front may move off the NE Florida coast late Sat night.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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