[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1223 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 mb low pressure center near 19N58W is showing signs of
organization. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is
from 15N-21N between 52W-59W. Additional development is expected
and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form while
the system moves northwestward and then northward over the open
Atlantic during the next day or two. The low is forecast to
interact with a frontal system by midweek and further development
is unlikely after that time. The chance of tropical cyclone
formation within 48 hours is high. This system could potentially
produce winds to gale force by late Wed when the low is moving
northward in the general vicinity of 25N60W. For more information,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS/WMO headers NFDHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 14N southward,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 01S-05N between 31W-43W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 20N southward,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Isolated showers are within 90 nm on either
side of the tropical wave axis from 12N-19N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ extends from 06N14W to 02N24W to
02N34W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 01S-04N
between 21W-31W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is elsewhere from 01S-10N between 19W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1015 mb surface high is over the western Gulf near 24N94W. Weak
surface ridging covers most of the Gulf, along with relatively dry
air. Weak high pressure over the western Gulf will shift
eastward through tonight. Fresh SE return flow will develop off
the Texas coast Wed through Thu. A strong cold front is expected
to move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon, resulting in fresh to
strong northerly winds behind it. The front will rapidly move
across the basin, nearly exiting by late Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, from 22N70W
to the Windward Passage near 19N75W. A surface trough continues
to the eastern coast of Jamaica to 15N78W to 11N82W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 18N-21N between 70W-77W in parts of
Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Broken multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are to the west and northwest of the
surface trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate N winds to
the west of the surface trough over the western Caribbean, and
fresh along the coast of Nicaragua. The trough will slowly
weaken and dissipate by late today. The tropical wave along 69W
will weaken through mid week as it crosses the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on the low
pressure near 19N58W, which has a high chance of tropical or
subtropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.

A surface trough extends from 31N69W to near Nassau Bahamas with
broken clouds and possible showers along the trough axis. A cold
front passes through 32N61W to 28N66W. The front becomes
stationary from 28N66W to 22N70W to the Windward Passage near
19N75W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
90-210 nm to the east of the cold front from 27N northward. Isolated
moderate convection is from 18N-21N between 70W-77W in parts of
Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Surface high pressure ridging
covers the Atlantic elsewhere east of 55W, anchored by a 1030 mb
high near 33N38W. Trade winds of 20-25 kt cover the Atlantic from
15N-25N between 20W-45W.

Strong winds have diminished behind the front that extends from
30N65W to 22N70W to the Windward Passage. Large seas N and NE of
the Bahamas will gradually subside through today. Another cold
front will develop and cross the northern waters late today into
Wed, resulting in fresh to strong W to NW winds and building seas.
High pressure will build across the northern waters Thu through
Fri. Yet another cold front may move off NE Florida by Sat night.

$$
Hagen
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