[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180011 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

CORRECTED IN ORDER TO ADD A SPECIAL FEATURE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front passes through 32N69W, to 27N70W, to Great Inagua
in the SE Bahamas, to SE Cuba. The front becomes dissipating
cold from SE Cuba to Jamaica. The front becomes dissipating
stationary from Jamaica to NE Nicaragua. Expect NW to N GALE-
FORCE WINDS in the area that is bounded by the points: 30N77W
30N79W 31N79W 31N77W 30N77W. Expect also sea heights ranging
from 15 feet to 20 feet in NE to E swell. The GALE-FORCE winds
are forecast to continue for the next 6 hours or so.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 10N to 30N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along
20N52W 13N57W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east of the surface
trough from 14N to 20N. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from
12N to 20N between 33W and 47W. Gradual development of the
surface trough is possible. It is possible that a tropical
depression, or a subtropical depression, may form during the
next two or three days, while the feature moves northwestward
and then northward into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after
midweek, and more development is not expected by that time.
Please read the High Seas Forecasts, that are issued by the
National Weather Service, for more details. The chance of
formation during the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been added to the surface
map analysis at 17/1800 UTC. The wave is along 31W/32W, from 15N
southward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within
150 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10N to 11N.
Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 02N to 11N
between 27W and 35W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from 20N
southward across Puerto Rico, moving W 10 knots. A well-defined
trough is analyzed at the surface associated with this wave.
Precipitation: Isolated moderate within 160 nm on either side of
the tropical wave from 13N to 20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through
the coastal plains of Liberia near 08N13W, to 05N18W 05N23W, and
to 03N31W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ, and within 240 nm to the
south of the ITCZ. Scattered moderate to strong precipitation is
inland, from 07N to 10N between 08W and the west coast of
Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Arkansas 1019 mb high pressure
center, into the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, toward the
northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
No significant deep convective precipitation is in the Gulf of
Mexico, in the post-frontal dry and cool airmass that prevails.

High pres in the western Gulf of Mexico will dominate through
the early part of the week. A rather weak front will move across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, from Monday afternoon through
Tuesday, with the high shifting E in its wake. Fresh to strong
SE return flow will become established off the Texas coast by
mid-week, before weakening some on Thursday and Thursday night.
A stronger cold front will move into the western Gulf of Mexico
on Friday and Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to SE Cuba. The
front becomes dissipating cold from SE Cuba to Jamaica. The
front becomes dissipating stationary from Jamaica to NE
Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
within 100 nm to the east of the cold front, from the Windward
Passage to NE Nicaragua. A surface trough is within 75 nm
to the east of the coast from Nicaragua to Costa Rica near 10N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 14N
southward from 81W westward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is to the east of the frontal
boundary, as far as 70W.

The current cold front will become stationary and weaken from
the Windward Passage to Nicaragua tonight. The current tropical
wave, in the Caribbean Sea near Puerto Rico, will weaken through
the early part of the week. Low pressure will form on Monday,
along a trough that is to the E of the Leeward Islands. The low
pressure center will move NE of the islands through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N69W, to 27N70W, to Great Inagua
in the SE Bahamas, to SE Cuba. The front becomes dissipating
cold from SE Cuba to Jamaica. The front becomes dissipating
stationary from Jamaica to NE Nicaragua. Expect NW to N GALE-
FORCE WINDS in the area that is bounded by the points: 30N77W
30N79W 31N79W 31N77W 30N77W. Expect also sea heights ranging
from 15 feet to 20 feet in NE to E swell. The GALE-FORCE winds
are forecast to continue for the next 6 hours or so.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally
strong within 160 nm to the east of the cold front from
Hispaniola northward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean,
elsewhere, from 21N northward between Africa and 55W.

The wind speeds to gale force, N of 29N between 77W and 80W, in
association with a 994 mb low pressure center that is near
31.5N74W, will diminish this evening. Large seas NE of the
Bahamas and behind the current strong cold front and connected
to the 994 mb low pressure center, will spread E-SE while
gradually subsiding through Monday night. Numerous thunderstorms
within 120 nm E of the front will persist tonight. The front
will stall and weaken, from Bermuda to the Windward Passage
through Monday. A couple of weak and dry cold fronts will sweep
across the area, from Monday through Wednesday. High pressure
will build into the area from Wednesday through Friday night.

$$
mt
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