[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1156 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 32N70W and extends
southward to the SE Bahamas near 23N74W to eastern Cuba near
21N76W. A 993 mb extratropical low with a central pressure of 993
mb is located near 32N75W. Gale-force winds are currently on-
going north of 29N and west of 74W. Seas are peaking at 15-20 ft
north of 28N and west of 77W. Ship A8OK6 reported 17 ft seas north
of the NW Bahamas at 1200 UTC. Expect these gale-force winds to
gradually weaken and drop below gale force around 0000 UTC this
evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave with an axis near 67W S of 19N is
moving W around 10 kt. A well-defined trough is analyzed at the
surface associated with this wave. Scattered showers are observed
from satellite and WSR-88D radar in San Juan from 14N to 19N
between 64W and 68W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N37W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 04N
to 10N between 13W and 21W as well as from 06N to 10N between 29W
and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging over the SE United States is promoting light and
variable winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate N winds
in the eastern Gulf. No significant deep convection is occurring
over the Gulf in the post-frontal dry and cool airmass prevailing
over the basin.

Winds and seas continue to diminish over the basin as high
pressure builds in across the region. A rather weak front will
move across the eastern Gulf Mon afternoon through Tue. High
pressure building behind that front will allow for fresh to strong
southeast return flow to become established off the Texas coast
by mid-week before weakening some Thu and Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the tropical waves section for information on the tropical
wave in the eastern Caribbean.

A cold front enters the N Caribbean from eastern Cuba near 20N77W
to 14N83W over northern Honduras. Scattered moderate convection
is seen within 60 nm of this front mostly between 80W and 84W.
An upper-level ridge is bringing subsidence to the eastern half
of the Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection, though
scattered showers are observed from satellite and WSR-88D radar
in San Juan from 14N to 19N between 64W and 68W. The latest
scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to
fresh N winds in the NW Caribbean behind the cold front with
light to gentle tradewinds across the rest of the basin.

The cold front will become stationary and weaken from the
Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua by early this evening. Low
pressure will form along a trough east of the Leeward Islands Mon
and track to the northeast of the islands through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
warning in the western Atlantic.

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 32N70W and extends
southward to the SE Bahamas near 23N74W to eastern Cuba near
21N76W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
within 120 nm of the cold front in the western Atlantic, north of
22N. A 1029 mb high is centered north of our area near 36N27W. A
moderate pressure gradient equatorward of the high is producing
generally moderate to fresh breeze tradewind easterlies.

In the central Atlantic, an upper-level low is helping to
induce a surface trough extending from 14N60W to 19N52W. Widely
scattered convection associated with this system is noted from
14N to 21N between 48W and 55W. This system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours as it moves
northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The
disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after mid-
week and further development is not expected after that time.

The front will stall and weaken from roughly Bermuda to the
Windward Passage tonight through Mon. A couple of weak and dry
cold fronts will sweep across the area Mon through Wed. High
pressure will build in across the area Wed through Thu night.

$$
Landsea
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net