[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
523 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

At 17/0900 UTC, the cold front enters the forecast waters near
31N71W and extends southward to the central Bahamas near 23N75W
to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. An intensifying low with a central
pressure of 996 mb is located near 31N75W. Gale- force winds are
currently on- going N of 28N and W of the front between 77W-79W.
Seas will range from 13-20 ft between 77W-79W. Expect these gale-
force winds to continue through Sunday evening. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or
at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave with an axis along 65W S of 19N is
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen within 150 nm of
the wave axis mostly north of 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa
near 06N11W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02N32W to
the coast of Brazil near 01N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 04N-10N between 13W-
22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure extends across the entire basin from a 1022
mb high near 34N92W. Fair weather conditions prevail across the
Gulf. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations
depict moderate to fresh northerly winds in the eastern Gulf with
calm to light east- northeast winds in the western basin.

Winds and seas continue to diminish over the basin as high
pressure builds in across the region. A weak front will move
across the eastern Gulf Monday afternoon through Tuesday. High
pressure building behind that front will allow for fresh to strong
southeast return flow to become established off the Texas coast
by mid-week before weakening some Thursday and Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the tropical waves section for information on the tropical
wave in the eastern Caribbean.

A cold front enters the NW Caribbean from eastern Cuba near
21N77W to 16N85W and stalls from that point to northern Honduras
near 16N87W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 80 nm
of this front mostly between 78W-84W. Scattered showers are also
moving across the Windward Passage. An upper level ridge is
bringing subsidence to the eastern half of the Caribbean which is
inhibiting deep convection. The latest scatterometer data and
surface observations depict fresh to strong northerly winds in
the NW Caribbean behind the cold front with light to gentle trades
across the rest of the basin.

The cold front will become stationary and weaken from the
Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua by early this evening.
Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will shift
southward to along and within about 180 nm east of the coast of
Honduras this afternoon and tonight before diminishing to moderate
to fresh winds on Monday to mainly moderate winds Monday night. A
weak trough will drift westward toward the Leeward Islands
through early next week. Low pressure on the north side of the
trough is expected track northwestward across the northeast part
of the Tropical N Atlantic waters Monday through early Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
warning in the western Atlantic.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within
150 nm of the cold front in the western Atlantic. These storms
extend along the front mostly north of 23N, which is impacting
portions of the southern Bahamas.

In the central Atlantic, an upper level low is located near
16N54W with a surface trough extending from 12N57W to 18N49W.
Scattered moderate convection associated with this system is noted
from 12N- 21N between 43W- 56W. This system has a low chance of
tropical development in the next 48 hours as it moves
northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The
disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after
midweek and further development is not expected after that time.

Meanwhile, an E-W oriented upper level trough continues to linger
along the Western Sahara. This is bringing showers across
Mauritania and Western Sahara. Otherwise, surface ridging
dominates the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic from a 1027
mb high near 36N27W.

The cold front will become stationary and weaken from the
Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua by early this evening as
the low pressure system tracks northeastward away from the area.
Strong gale force northerly winds behind the front N of 28N will
slowly diminish this afternoon. Large seas over the northwest
waters will gradually subside through the early part of the
upcoming week. A couple of weak and dry cold front will sweep
across the area Monday through Wednesday. High pressure will
build in across the area Wednesday through Thursday night.

$$

AKR
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