[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1212 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N73W and extends
southward to the central Bahamas near 24N76W to central Cuba near
22N77W. Gale-force winds are currently on-going primarily within
30N78W to 29N78W to 30N80W to 31N80W to 31N78W to 30N78W. Seas
will range from 14-19 ft in mixed swell. Expect these gale-force
winds to continue through early Monday morning. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or
at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave with an axis along 64W S of 19N is
moving W at 10-15 kts. Scattered showers are seen within 100 nm of
the wave axis mostly north of 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra-
Leone near 07N12W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to
near 02N38W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the
monsoon trough from 03N-09N between 11W-18W. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen north of the ITCZ from 05N-10N between
25W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure extends across the entire basin from a 1022
mb high near 32N94W. Fair weather conditions prevail across the
Gulf. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
northerly winds in the eastern Gulf with calm to light east-
northeast winds in the western basin.

Winds and seas continue to diminish over the basin as high
pressure builds in the wake of a cold front that moved through the
Gulf yesterday. A weaker front will move across the eastern Gulf
late Monday and Tuesday. High pressure building behind that front
will allow fresh to strong SE return flow off the Texas coast by
mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the tropical waves section for information on the tropical
wave in the eastern Caribbean.

A cold front enters the NW Caribbean from central Cuba near
21N78W to northern Honduras near 16N86W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen within 60 nm of this front. There are also
scattered thunderstorms seen between SE Cuba and Jamaica. Farther
south, the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing convection
off the Costa Rican and Panama coast, S of 11N between 80W-83W. An
upper level ridge is bringing subsidence to the eastern half of
the Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection associated with
the tropical wave. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate
to fresh northerly winds in the NW Caribbean behind the cold front
with calm to light trades across the rest of the basin.

A cold front from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras will stall and
weaken from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua on Sunday.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front as it moves
across the NW Caribbean. A weak trough will drift west toward the
Leeward Islands through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
warning in the western Atlantic.

Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150 nm of the cold
front in the western Atlantic. These storms extend along the front
mostly north of 21N, which is impacting portions of the southern
Bahamas. Farther east, an upper level low is located near 16N53W
with a surface trough extending along 54W from 06-22N. Scattered
moderate convection associated with this system is noted from 12N-
21N between 40W-54W. An E-W oriented upper level trough continues
to linger along the Western Sahara. This is bringing scattered
showers across Mauritania and Western Sahara. Otherwise, surface
ridging dominates the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic
from a 1029 mb high near 36N28W.

A cold front from 31N72W to eastern Cuba will stall and weaken
from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late Sunday into
Monday. Gale force winds are expected this weekend over the
northern waters W of 70W, as an area of low pressure deepens off
the coast of the Carolinas. Marine conditions will then improve
across the area through mid week as the low pressure moves farther
N of the area.

$$

AKR
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