[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
555 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from a 1005 mb
low near 33N76W to the northern Bahamas near 27N78W to NW Cuba
near 23N81W. Gale- force winds will develop west the front mainly
N of 29N between 75W-80W by Saturday afternoon. These gale- force
winds are expected to continue through Sunday morning with seas
ranging 12-21 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 62W S of 20N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Showers along the northern portion of the
wave are moving across the Leeward Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 05N21W to 04N34W. The ITCZ continues from 04N34W to the coast
of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along and south of the monsoon trough from 03N-10N between 13W-
21W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted along the
monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 24W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to build in across the Gulf with dry air
filling in. Light showers are still lingering across the eastern
Gulf near the Florida coast, from the Tampa Bay coast down to the
Keys, with the rest of the basin experiencing fair weather. A
trough extends across the western Bay of Campeche from 18N93W to
24N96W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
northerly winds across the Gulf.

Winds and seas will diminish over the basin through Sunday as a
cold front continues to move away from the area. High pressure
will prevail across the region through Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front continues to press southeastward across the NW
Caribbean, extending from south-central Cuba near 22N82W to Belize
near 17N88W. A pre-frontal trough also extends from central Cuba
near 22N88W to northern Honduras near 16N86W. Showers with
isolated thunderstorms are moving ahead of the front from 16N-22N
between 80W-88W. Convection is also noted in the SW Caribbean due
to enhancement from the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, mostly S
of 10N between 76W-83W. Scattered showers are moving across
Puerto Rico eastward through the Lesser Antilles. A strong mid-
level ridge is present across the eastern portion of the basin.
Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades
throughout most of the Caribbean with moderate winds north of
Colombia.

The cold front will extend from central Cuba to Honduras later
today, then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua on
Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front as
it moves across the NW Caribbean. A weak trough will drift west
toward the Lesser Antilles this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information in regards
to the developing gale in the western Atlantic.

Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front N of
29N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also within
90 nm of the front S of 29N. In the central Atlantic, a mid-
level low is noted near 18N49W and extends southward into
Suriname/French Guiana. At the surface, a trough extends from
12N56W to 22N57W. Scattered moderate convection associated with
this system is observed from 09N- 23N between 45W- 57W. An upper
level trough extends E-W off the eastern African coast, mostly
along western Sahara and Mauritania. This is bringing scattered
showers across Senegal and Mauritania. Otherwise, surface ridging
dominates the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic from a
1030 mb high near 37N29W. The latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh WNW winds filling in behind the front off the
Florida coast, N of 27N and W of 79W.

The cold front will extend from 30N70W to eastern Cuba Sun. Gale
force winds are expected this weekend over the northern waters W
of 70W as an area of low pressure deepens off the coast of South
Carolina. Marine conditions will improve across the area Sunday
through Tuesday.

$$

AKR
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