[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

As of 14/1500 UTC, a 1019 mb low is over the NW Gulf near 28N96W.
A cold front extends south from the low to 24N98W. The front will
move SE across the basin through Friday. In the wake of this
front, gale-force winds are forecast over the SW Gulf tonight
with seas ranging between 8-12 ft. These conditions will continue
through late Friday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends from 18N45W to 13N48W to 07N49W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 300 nm E of the axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 87W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
within 180 nm of the wave axis, mostly over the E Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N30W to 06N40W
to 10N47W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 10N50W and
continues to 08N54W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-
10N between 03W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 14/1500 UTC, a 1019 mb low is over the NW Gulf near 28N96W.
A cold front extends south from the low to 24N98W. Refer to the
section above for details on the Gale Warning behind this front.
Elsewhere, a stationary front extends from S Florida near 25N80W
to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 26N85W to 22N87W to a 1014 mb low
over the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. Isolated moderate convection
is within 120 nm of the front.

The stationary front will gradually become ill defined late
today. The W Gulf cold front will progress southeastward through
the basin before exiting late Fri. Weak low pressure is expected
to form along this front tonight over the NE Gulf then move across
the northern Florida Peninsula Fri. Gale force N winds are
expected behind the front over SW portions tonight through Fri
night. Another cold front may move into the western Gulf late Sun
through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Scattered showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean and eastern
Yucatan Peninsula mainly north of 19N between 84W-88W. Relatively
dry air covers much of the eastern and central Caribbean.
Scattered showers over the far SW Caribbean and over land from N
Colombia to Nicaragua are due to the east Pacific monsoon trough
and the tropical wave along 86W. Scatterometer data depicts light
to moderate trades across the basin.

A cold front will move into the far NW Caribbean late Fri, then
gradually stall from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua Sun. The remnants
of the front will linger roughly along 80W for the start of next
week. Fresh to strong N winds will follow this next cold front as
it moves across the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, a weak pres gradient
across the basin will lead to generally moderate tradewinds. NE
swell will impact the Atlantic and Caribbean passages Fri into
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N59W to 27N67W. a
stationary front continues to to S Florida near 25N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm E of the cold front. A
prefrontal trough extends from 29N58W to 24N57W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 280 nm E of the trough. Another
surface trough is over the tropical Atlantic from 21N54W to
13N54W. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm E of this
trough. A 1036 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 42N29W.

The frontal system in the west Atlantic will gradually weaken and
begin to drift northward to the W of 70W this afternoon through
tonight. Strong E-NE winds occurring north of the front will
diminish to fresh this afternoon, and decrease further tonight.
Low pressure is expected to develop off the NE Florida coast on
Fri then drift NE and deepen over the weekend off the coast of the
Carolinas, then move NE and exit the region late Sun through Mon.
This low will drag a cold front through areas W of 70W through
the weekend. Gale force winds are possible this weekend behind the
front, mainly N of 28N.

$$
Formosa
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