[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
557 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will enter the Gulf today, then move SE across the
basin through Friday. In the wake of this front, gale-force winds
are forecast over the SW Gulf by early Friday from 21N-24N and
west of 96W, with seas ranging between 9-11 ft. These conditions
will continue through late Friday. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned with axis along
54W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted from 17N-20N between 50W-54W.

A west Caribbean tropical/Central America tropical wave extends
its axis along 86W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis, mainly enhanced
by the presence of the monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm on either
side of the monsoon trough between 18W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the southwest Gulf waters.

A stationary front extends across the southern portion of the
basin from 25N80W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W. A surface
trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from 23N96W to 20N93W.
Another trough is analyzed over the northwest Gulf from 28N95W to
26N97W. Scattered showers are noted along these troughs. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the
basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted over the southwest Gulf.

The stationary front will gradually dissipate this morning. A new
cold front will move into the Gulf this afternoon and progress
southeastward through the basin before exiting late Fri. Weak low
pressure is expected to form along this front tonight over the E
or NE Gulf then move across the northern Florida Peninsula Fri. In
the wake of this front, gale force winds are forecast over
portions of the SW Gulf late tonight through Fri night. Another
cold front may move into the western Gulf late Sun through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Scattered showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean and eastern
Yucatan Peninsula mainly north of 19N between 84W-88W. Relatively
dry air covers much of the eastern and central Caribbean.
Scattered showers over the far SW Caribbean and over land from N
Colombia to Nicaragua are due to the east Pacific monsoon trough
and the tropical wave along 86W. Scatterometer data depicts light
to moderate trades across the basin.

The stationary front will begin to drift NW-N and gradually
dissipate today. A cold front will move into the far NW Caribbean
late Fri, the gradually stall from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua Sun.
The remnants of the front will linger roughly along 80W for the
start of next week. Fresh to strong N winds will follow this next
cold front as it moves across the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, a weak
pres gradient across the basin will lead to generally moderate
tradewinds. NE swell will impact the Atlantic as well as Caribbean
passages Fri into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed as a
cold front from 32N59W to 27N74W, then becomes stationary from
that point to 26N80W. To the east, a surface trough extends from
23N70W to 20N73W. Surface ridge prevails across the remainder of
the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 43N30W. A
surface trough is noted in scatterometer data extending from
17N45W to 10N49W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and
east of the trough between 40W-48W.

The frontal system in the west Atlantic will weaken and dissipate
later today. Strong ENE winds north of the front, mainly E of
70W, will diminish to fresh this afternoon, and decrease further
tonight. Low pressure should move off the NE Florida coast by
early Fri then continue stall just N of the area off the SE U.S.
coast through the weekend. This low will drag a cold front through
areas W of 70W through the weekend. Gale force winds are possible
this weekend behind the front, mainly N of 28N, closer to the low
pressure.

$$

ERA
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