[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The next cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico by
Tuesday, extending from 29.5N93W to 26N97W. Gale-force winds are
forecast by that time NW of front. These winds will prevail over
the west Gulf through Wednesday morning. See the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W from 15N southward, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 08N-16N between
40W-53W. This convection is also being enhanced by upper level
diffluence.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from 20N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Drier air is present in the
eastern Caribbean limiting convection. Scattered moderate
convection is inland, however, over Hispaniola, NW Venezuela, and
N Colombia.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
over the SW Caribbean where it meets the EPAC monsoon trough,
mainly south of 12N.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N20W to 05N40W to 04N51W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves described above,
widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 21W-
40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to build across the basin, anchored by a
1024 mb high centered over S Georgia near 32N84W. To the
southwest, a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche
from 22N97W to 19N94W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
easterly winds over the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh
northeasterly winds are over the remainder of the eastern Gulf,
while light to moderate easterly winds prevail west of 90W.

A strong arctic cold front will reach the Texas coast Mon night,
reach from near Panama City, Florida to 25N92W and to near
Tampico, Mexico early Tue, then from near Tampa, Florida to 24N89W
and to near Veracruz, Mexico Tue night. The front will begin to
weaken as it reaches from the Straits of Florida to along
northwest Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula to Bay of
Campeche on Wed. In its wake, strong gale force northerly winds
and large seas will develop Tue morning in the northwest Gulf and
spread southward into the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche through
Wed. Winds and seas will decrease from Wed afternoon through Thu.
Another cold front will move across the northern and central Gulf
Thu through Fri night, followed by fresh to strong northerly
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from
20N74W to 20N88W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of
the front, affecting eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage, and
adjacent waters. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over
the Gulf of Honduras.

The high pressure ridge north of the area will weaken and move
east, relaxing the pressure gradient, and causing winds to
diminish to fresh through early this week. Looking ahead, a weak
cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by mid week, then
become stationary through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N60W to
22N70W to E Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails within 240 nm east of the front. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb
high centered near 38N29W.

The cold front will stall later tonight, then gradually weaken
and dissipate early this week. Strong winds to the north and west
of the front will weaken to fresh later tonight as high pressure
builds into the area. The next cold front will exit the SE U.S.
coast Tue afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida by late Wed, and from 27N65W to central Cuba by late Thu.

$$
Formosa
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