[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Nov 10 11:49:17 CST 2019


AXNT20 KNHC 101749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1249 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 52W from 14N southward, is moving
W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 10N-16N between
44W-53W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis
along 69W from 20N southward, moving W at around 15-20 kt. Drier
air is present in the eastern Caribbean limiting convection along
the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the west Caribbean with axis along 85W
from 18N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the southern portion of the wave where
it meets the EPAC monsoon trough, mainly south of 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W 07N28W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N28W to 05N49W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves described above, scattered showers prevail from
02N-10N between 22W-32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to build across the basin, anchored by a
1023 mb high centered near 30N93W. To the southwest, a surface
trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N96W to 19N95W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northeasterly winds
across the eastern half of the basin, while light to moderate
easterly winds prevail west of 90W.

Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the southern Gulf
today. The next cold front will reach the Texas coast Mon night,
the move southeast through the Gulf Tue and Tue night, the out of
the southeast Gulf by Wed. In its wake, gale force northerly winds
and large seas will develop Tue morning in the northwest Gulf and
spread southward into the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche
through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A cold front extends across the northwest Caribbean from 21N78W to
21N87W. Scattered showers are noted along the front, affecting
eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage, and adjacent waters. To the
south, the extension of the EPCA's monsoon trough is enhancing
convection south of 12N between 78W-82W. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate trade winds across the basin.

The high pressure ridge north of the area will weaken and move
east, relaxing the pressure gradient, and causing winds to
diminish to fresh through early this week. Looking ahead, a weak
cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by mid week, then
stall through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N61W to
26N66W to 21N76W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and
within 250 nm east of the front. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1036 mb high centered
37N30W.

The cold front will stall later today, then gradually weaken and
dissipate early this week. Strong winds to the north and west of
the front will weaken to fresh later today as high pressure builds
into the area. The next cold front will exit the SE U.S. coast
Tue afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida
by late Wed, and from 27N65W to central Cuba by late Thu.

$$

ERA
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