[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090007 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
707 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2019

Corrected to add Gulf of Mexico Gale warning

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extending from 32N72W to near Cape Canaveral Florida
will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early Sat, then
from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds will
reach gale force north of the front from the northern Bahamas
northeastward Sat. The forecast calls for winds 30 to 40 kt with
seas peaking near 16 feet in the gale area. Winds and seas will
diminish across the region Sun and Mon. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale warning...

A cold front extending from Tampa, Florida to 27N90W to 25N96W
and to inland Mexico at 21N97W will reach from near Naples,
Florida to 25N90W and to near Veracruz, Mexico by late tonight and
from the Florida Keys to 23N90W to near Minatitlan, Mexico by
early Sat. The cold front will then become stationary by early Sat
evening from the Straits of Florida to 21N90W and to near
Minatitlan. It will begin to weaken later on Sat night and through
Sun night. Near gale force to minimal gale force northwest to
north winds over the far west-central Gulf will continue through
late tonight as they spread so across southward across the SW Gulf
waters. These winds will continue there through early Sat
afternoon before diminishing to mainly strong winds through late
Sat night. A strong arctic cold front will move off the Texas
coast Mon night and quickly sweep across the area by mid week.
Strong gale force northerly winds and large seas will follow in
behind this front across the western Gulf Tue through Wed. See
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the
marine zone Agadir for the next 18 hours and in the far N of
marine zone Tarfaya for the next 12 hours. Rough to very rough
seas are expected in these areas. Please refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast at the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with an axis extending from 02N34W to 14N33W is
moving W around 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave
is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 10N between
33W and 40W.

A tropical wave with an axis extending from 04N56W to 15N54W is
moving W around 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave
has dry air on its west side and only modest levels of moisture
to work with. Cloudiness and isolated showers are noted from 10N
to 14N between 56W and 60W.

A tropical wave over the central Caribbean with an axis extending
from 06N75W to 20N75W is moving W around 5 kt. TPW satellite
imagery indicates this wave has dry air on its east side and only
modest levels of moisture to work with. No significant convection
is currently associated with this wave.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean with an axis extending
from 05N83W to 17N83W is moving W between 5 and 10 kt. TPW
satellite imagery shows this wave has deep layer moisture
associated with it. Isolated moderate and strong convection is
seen from 05N to 13N between 81W and 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near
11N15W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 06N33W, then
resumes near 06N35W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Aside from
the convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found from 06N to 11N between
40W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the special features section above for details on the
current Gulf of Mexico gale event and weather for that basin
through the middle of next week.

Otherwise, extensive cloudiness and patchy rain cover all of the
Gulf of Mexico to the wake of the cold front. This area of
cloudiness and rain will continue to spread SE in conjunction with
the front. The area of cloudiness and patchy rain will gradually
disperse Sat night through Sun night as the cold front stalls and
weakens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scatterometer data from this afternoon depicts light to moderate
trade winds over the basin, except for the central Caribbean,
where and fresh to locally strong winds were observed. Water vapor
imagery shows and upper-level ridge just to the N of the basin is
supporting mid-level subsidence and a dry weather regime over all
of the basin except the far SW.

Winds and seas will diminish across the region through the middle
of next week as cold fronts moving E from the united states
mainland weaken the ridge over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings, and
the two tropical waves crossing the basin.

A cold front extending from 32N72W to near Cape Canaveral Florida
will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Sat morning, then
slow down and begin to stall over the Florida Straits and central
Bahamas on Sun. Winds will reach gale force north of the front to
the north and east of the Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Winds and
seas will diminish across the region Sat night through Sun
evening. Looking ahead, a stronger front will move off the
northeast Florida coast Tue night.

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place
E of the front from 27N to 30N between 76W and 79W. An upper-
level trough extending from 32N61W to 25N65W to 17N68W is
supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from
27N to 30N between 67W and 70W and from 23N to 26N between 69W and
71W. Otherwise, 1029 mb high pressure centered just NE of the
Azores near 40N23W is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds N of
the ITCZ between the coast of Africa and 60W,

$$
McElroy
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