[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early
Fri morning, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early
Sat, and from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds
will reach gale force north of the front and NE of the NW Bahamas
Fri night and Sat. Currently, the forecast calls for winds in the
30-40 kt range with seas building up to 12 ft. Winds and seas
will diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening.
See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers SFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

Near gale to gale force winds are forecast by Meteo-France in the
marine zone Agadir through the next 24 hours. Rough seas, increasing
to locally very rough seas in the southern part are also expected
in the area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
at the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 and/or the website:
weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 28W from 03N-14N, is moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-12N
between 23W-35W.

A tropical wave with axis along 50W from 05N-16N, is moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-15N
between 47W-52W. Latest scatterometer data depicts very well the
wave axis. This wave is well defined in the TPW animation also.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 73W
and S of 20N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted in the vicinity of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis along 81W S
of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
near the southern end of the wave axis and mainly S of 12N W of
80W to the coast of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 07N26W. The ITCZ begins
E of the tropical wave near 07N29W to 04N39W to 07N48W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-10N between 32W-
45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb
surface high centered over the eastern coast of Mexico near
22N98W. High pressure of 1019 mb centered over the Carolinas
dominates the SE CONUS and the Gulf of Mexico, producing mainly E
to SE gentle to moderate winds. To the southwest, a surface
trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 22N94W to 19N94W.
A few showers are in the vicinity of the trough.

A cold front moving into the northern Gulf tonight will be
followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front
will extend from Tampa to Veracruz, Mexico Fri afternoon. Strong
to near gale force N winds are expected W of the front off the
Mexican coast Fri through Sat night. The front will stall and
weaken over the SE and S central Gulf through Sun as surface
ridging builds across the basin through Mon. Looking ahead, a
stronger front will blast southeastward from the Texas coast Mon
night. Gale force winds will affect most of the Gulf W of 94W Tue
and Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trade winds across the
south-central Caribbean, with mainly moderate to locally fresh
winds elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades and building seas are
expected in tropical Atlantic waters and across the south- central
Caribbean through Sat as high pressure strengthens north of the
area. Seas are forecast to build up to 9 or 10 ft. Winds and seas
will diminish across the region Sat into Mon.

Scattered showers embedded in the trade wind flow are noted across
the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect and the tropical waves moving across the
basin.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 29N69W to
26N72W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 25N between 63W-71W.
This feature could be the reflection of an upper-level trough
crossing the area. Farther east, another surface trough extends from
30N34W to 26N34W. Scattered showers are near the trough that is
associated with an upper-level low. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located just W of
the Azores. The pressure gradient between the southern periphery
of the high and lower pressures near the ITCZ/Monsoon trough is
producing a belt of fresh to locally strong trade winds,
particularly between 12N-18N. Scatterometer data confirmed the
presence of these winds.

A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early
Fri morning, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early
Sat, and from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun. Winds
will reach gale force north of the front from the northern
Bahamas northeastward Fri night and Sat. Winds and seas will
diminish across the region Sat night through Sun evening.

$$

ERA
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