[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041155
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1140 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W, from 14N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the E of the
tropical wave, and within 320 nm to the W of the tropical wave.
It is possible that some or most of the precipitation may be
more related to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, from 14N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related
scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm to 180 nm W of the
tropical wave from 07N to 09N, within 150 nm off the coast of
Guyana, to the northeast.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving through
the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to
the 23N61W Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation
center. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 200 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 16N
to 19N. It is possible that this precipitation may be more
related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 20N
southward, moving W 15 knots. This wave is moving through the
Windward Passage. Precipitation: no significant deep convective
precipitation is directly related to this tropical wave.
Isolated moderate is within 450 nm to the west of the tropical
wave. It is possible that the precipitation may be more directly
related to an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is in
Nicaragua. Rainshowers are possible also, elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea, between 70W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 10N13W, to 04N20W,
and 02N27W. The ITCZ continues from 02N27W to 02N35W and 06N43W
to 06N51W. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong from 07N
to 10N between 44W and 47W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere within 600 nm N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 32N67W, to 29N71W, to the NW
Bahamas. The front becomes stationary, from the NW Bahamas, to
the Florida Keys, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. The
front becomes stationary, and it continues from the NW corner of
the Yucatan Peninsula southwestward to the northern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong: within 75 nm on either side
of the stationary front in the Gulf of Mexico; and from 20N
southward in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas, into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico.

The current frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate through
late today. Remnants of the front will move as a trough across
the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. High
pressure in the lower Mississippi Valley will move eastward, to
the Carolinas, and dominate the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.
Expect mainly easterly wind flow. The next cold front is
forecast to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico by Friday. The front
will bring fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Nicaragua.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Central America and the
Caribbean Sea from Panama and Costa Rica northward from 77W
westward. A surface trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, along 84W/85W, from 16N to NW Cuba. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is spread throughout the area of upper level cyclonic
wind flow.

Long period NE swell continues to move into the Atlantic Ocean
exposures and passages, in the eastern Caribbean Sea, and in the
tropical Atlantic Ocean waters to the east of the basin. Fresh
trade winds will allow the sea heights to build to at least 8
feet in the Atlantic Ocean waters. This swell will subside
gradually through mid-week. The trade winds and the sea heights
also will increase in parts of the south central Caribbean Sea,
starting by tonight, as high pressure builds to the north of the
area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N67W, to 29N71W, to the NW
Bahamas. The front becomes stationary, from the NW Bahamas, to
the Florida Keys, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. The
front becomes stationary, and it continues from the NW corner of
the Yucatan Peninsula southwestward to the northern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong: within 75 nm on either side
of the stationary front in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough
is along 77W/78W from the coast of Cuba near 22N/23N in Cuba to
26N in the Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated moderate, in
general, from 20N northward, from the 64W/65W surface trough
westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N61W, about
390 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N
northward between 50W and 70W. A surface trough curves through
32N64W, to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 25N65W.
The trough continues from the low pressure center to 21N66W.
Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
20N to 30N between 52W and 62W.

An upper level trough passes through 33N28W to 25N31W to 17N38W.
A surface trough is along 35W/36W, from 21N to 31N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate within 720 nm to the E of
surface trough. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm to the W
of the trough.

The current frontal boundary will stall, and shift northward
again today while dissipating. Large long-period northeast
swell, to the northeast of the Bahamas, will subside gradually
though late today. A surface trough, currently along 64W/65W,
will move westward across the waters that are to the east of the
Bahamas, through Wednesday. The next cold front is forecast to
reach the waters off NE Florida by Friday night, bringing
increasing wind speeds and building sea heights.

$$
mt
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