[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 51W S of 13N
is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 06N-11N between 45W-55W.

A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles with an axis along
60/61W from 08N-18N is moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 72/73W from
09N-20N is moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is
currently associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Guinea near 09N13W to
05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 06N50W, then continues W
of a tropical wave from 06N52W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-11N between the coast of Africa and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Everglades City Florida to Merida
Mexico to 17N94W. Scattered showers are along the front. A trough
is analyzed in the western Bay of Campeche from 19N95W to 23N98W.
Surface ridging extends across the central and western Gulf from
a 1026 mb high near 33N88W. The latest scatterometer data depicts
strong northerly winds NW of the stationary front in the Bay of
Campeche, S of 22N between 91W-96.5W. Moderate north-northeast
winds are observed in the rest of the basin.

Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas persist over the
southern Gulf behind a stationary front extending from southwest
Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Winds and seas will diminish
through Mon as the front weakens and high pressure north of the
basin shifts east, allowing gentle to light breezes and slight
seas across the basin by mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends from Everglades City Florida to Merida
Mexico. Scattered showers and tstorms are over the far NW
Caribbean and Yucatan Channel north of 20N and west of 81W. A
weak upper level low is in the W Caribbean near 14N81W, spreading
cloudiness and scattered showers near and to the south of the
upper-low. Dry low to mid-level air is north of 16N between 67W-
80W, over Hispaniola, Jamaica and E Cuba. The East Pacific monsoon
trough is enhancing scattered showers and isolated tstorms south
of 11N near Panama. Over the NE Caribbean, scattered showers and
isolated tstorms over the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands as
well as Puerto Rico are being induced by a tropical wave along 60W
and a large upper-level low that is centered near 23N61W.

Long period NE swell continues to move into the Atlantic
exposures and passages in the eastern Caribbean. This swell will
gradually subside through Tue. Trade winds and seas will increase
over portions of the south central Caribbean starting by late
Mon, as high pressure builds north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N69W to Grand Bahama Island to Ft.
Lauderdale Florida to Everglades City Florida. Cloudiness along
with isolated to scattered light to moderate showers accompany the
front. A surface trough extends from 27N76W to 22N78W. Isolated
showers are along and east of the trough axis. Another surface
trough is along 65W from 22N-31N. A large upper-level low centered
near 23N61W is inducing scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 18N-29N between 55W-61W. To the east, a surface
trough extends from 31N29W to 26N33W to 21N34W. Scattered light to
moderate showers extend to about 300 nm east of the trough. The
latest ASCAT data depict fresh NE winds to the east of Florida.
These winds should become more easterly late tonight.

The W Atlantic cold front will continue drifting before
dissipating by early in the week. Large long-period northeast
swell to the northeast of the Bahamas will gradually subside
though Mon. A surface trough currently located along 65W, will
track westward across the waters east of the Bahamas through mid
week.

$$
Hagen
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