[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1140 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 12N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within
900 nm E of the tropical wave from the ITCZ to 10N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 19N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 12N to 20N between 52W and 61W. It is
more likely that this precipitation may be more related to the
upper level cyclonic wind flow that is associated with the
22N61W cyclonic circulation center.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 19N
southward, moving W 5 knots. The wave is moving toward the
eastern sections of Hispaniola. The wave is moving through the
area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the
22N61W Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center.
Precipitation: isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea between
60W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 18N
southward, moving W 15 knots. This wave is moving through the
area of an upper level trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate
from 14N northward from 75W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 09N13W, to 07N21W
and 07N30W. The ITCZ continues from 07N30W to 07N54W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is: within 180 nm N of the monsoon trough
between 17W and 22W; within 900 nm E of the 47W/48W tropical
wave from the ITCZ to 10N; within 300 nm S of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ between 13W and 33W; and within 60 nm S of the ITCZ
between 45W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 32N74W to Lake Okeechobee in
Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico along the NW
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong: to the SE of the front in the Gulf of Mexico;
and from 20N southward in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas, into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico.

Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas persist over
the southern Gulf this morning near a stationary front reaching
from southwest Florida to northwest Yucatan.
Winds and seas will diminish through Mon as the front weakens
and high pressure north of the basin shifts east, allowing
gentle to light breezes and slight seas across the basin by mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
extending from Cuba to southern sections of Nicaragua.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N northward from 78W
westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia and
beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong from 12N southward from 76W westward.

Long period NE swell continues to move into the Atlantic Ocean
exposures and passages, in the eastern Caribbean Sea and the
tropical Atlantic Ocean waters east of the basin. Fresh trade
winds will allow the sea heights to build to at least 8 feet in
the Atlantic Ocean waters. This swell will subside gradually
through mid-week. Trade winds and sea heights also will increase
in parts of the south central Caribbean Sea, starting by late
Monday, as high pressure builds to the north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N74W to Lake Okeechobee in
Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico along the NW
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to the W of the line that passes through 32N70W to the coast of
Florida near 26N80W. A surface trough is about 240 nm to the SE
of the stationary front. Precipitation: Rainshowers are
possible, elsewhere, from the Bahamas to 30N from 70W westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N61W, about
360 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N
northward between 50W and 70W. A surface trough is along
62W/63W, from 22N to 32N. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 13N to 30N between 49W and 63W.

Reinforcing high pressure is allowing the previously-stalled
stationary front to start to move southward, slightly, through
today. The front is forecast to dissipate early in the week.
Large long-period northeast swell, to the northeast of the
Bahamas, will subside gradually though Monday. A surface trough,
currently located E of the area roughly along 62W/63W, will move
westward across the waters that are to the east of the Bahamas,
through Wednesday.

$$
mt
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