[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Rebekah has now weakened to a post-tropical cyclone as of 01/0900
UTC centered near 40.6N 29.0W with a central pressure of 1005 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. This is
the last update for this system.

...Western Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning...

A cold front stretches across the eastern and central Gulf of
Mexico, from the Florida Big Bend near 29N82W to the Bay of
Campeche near 19N93W. Northwest to north gale force winds are S
of 23N and W of 94W and seas of 10-20 ft. These conditions will
continue through 01/1800 UTC. See the latest High Seas Forecast
product, listed under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W S of 17N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen within 140 nm of the wave
11N-17N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W S of 19N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted east of the wave
from 12N- 16N between 62W- 64W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W S of 19N, moving W
at 15 kt. No significant convection is currently associated with
this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 09N13W to 07N23W to
06N36W. The ITCZ continues from 06N36W to French Guiana near
04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the
monsoon trough and ITCZ from 03N- 09N between 13W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing across the eastern and central Gulf of
Mexico. See the special features section for more details.
Scattered thunderstorms are seen along the front in the SE Gulf
from 23N- 25N between 85W-88W. Scattered thunderstorms are also
seen adjacent to the front in the Bay of Campeche, S of 21N
between 91W-95W. A trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from
18N93W to 21N95W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong northerly winds in the western Gulf, with gale force winds
in the Bay of Campeche. Calm to light winds are ahead of the cold
front in the eastern Gulf.

The strong cold front will extend from SW Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula later today. Strong gale force winds west of the front
will diminish by this afternoon. Strong high pressure behind the
front will support fresh to strong N to NE winds across the basin
this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

The upper low over the NW Caribbean is meandering across western
Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed
from the NE coast of Nicaragua to south-central Cuba in addition
to isolated thunderstorms off the coast of the Yucatan southward
into the Gulf of Honduras. The latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate trades north of Colombia with light to gentle trades
elsewhere.

Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean
through Sunday. Large long period NE swell in the tropical north
Atlantic waters and the Caribbean passages will slowly subside
tonight through Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is entering the western Atlantic waters, entering the
waters near 31N80W to the coast of NE Florida near 30N81W. A pre-
frontal trough is analyzed from 25N80W to 30N79W. Showers are
moving along the front, with thunderstorms near the pre-frontal
trough from 29N-31N. A surface trough is seen in the Bahamas from
22N76W to 26N77W. Meanwhile, a stationary front extends across
the eastern and central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N34W
to 20N57W to 21N67W to 31N74W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is seen adjacent to the front from 17N-27N between 44W-
57W. Surface ridging extends across the eastern Atlantic from a
1029 mb high near 34N18W.

High pressure N of the region will shift eastward ahead of a cold
front moving into the far NW waters. The front will reach from
31N75W to central Florida later today, then stall and weaken
tonight and Saturday. Reinforcing high pressure will push the
front southward Saturday night and Sunday. Large NE swell
affecting the area NE of the Bahamas will gradually subside
Saturday and Sunday.

$$
AKR
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