[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT Thu May 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America...

The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists in Central America and
the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean. This circulation will
continue to bring abundant moisture and periods of heavy rainfall,
in general, to Central America during the next few days. The area
of greatest concern, from late Thursday through Saturday,
includes Guatemala and southern Mexico, from the Guatemala border
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, including the Mexican states of
Chiapas, SE Veracruz and E Oaxaca, as an area of low pressure that
is along the East Pacific monsoon trough is absorbed into the
CAG. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of
mountainous terrain. Isolated flash flooding still is possible
throughout the remainder of Central America during the next few
days, in addition to the rains for Guatemala and southern Mexico.
Please refer to your local meteorological service for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 12N-01N.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 100 nm mostly to the
east of this feature and south of 07N. The wave is collocated
with a 700 mb trough as diagnosed by computer models. The wave is
within the western edge of a moisture plume that is seen in total
precipitable water imagery.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from 05N24W to 03N34W, then
continues west of the tropical wave near 02N36W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-
01N between 08W-33W mostly along and south of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layered ridge continues to cover the Gulf of Mexico
bringing fair conditions across the basin. Surface ridging is seen
over the Gulf from high pressure in the western Atlantic. Some
moderate to strong convection is moving into the southern Bay of
Campeche from ongoing activity across southern Mexico. Mostly
light to gentle southeasterly winds are seen in the Gulf with some
moderate winds in the west central basin.

The high pressure across the SW Atlantic will maintain moderate
easterly winds south of the ridge through Monday. A broad area of
low pressure across Central America in combination with a diurnal
trough moving off the coast of Yucatan each night will enhance
easterly winds in the SW Gulf this weekend. Very active weather
associated with the broad area of low pressure could shift from
southeastern Mexico and into the southwestern Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough currently moving over the western Atlantic
is digging across the northern Caribbean. The monsoon trough
extends from northern Colombia to the coast of Panama, into
southern Belize and southern Mexico. Numerous moderate to strong
convection extends from northern Colombia to the western
Caribbean near the Nicaragua and Honduras eastern border.
Convection is also seen over the Greater Antilles and portions of
the Lesser Antilles, with isolated moderate convection seen over
the northern and central Caribbean. Winds in the northern
Caribbean gentle to moderate out of the southeast, with light to
gentle trades in the central and eastern basin.

High pressure ridge extending W to E along 28N-29N will
maintain moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean through
the weekend. A broad area of low pressure persisting over Central
America and the Gulf of Honduras will provide favorable conditions
for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms across the
western Caribbean during the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N37W and
extends south to 24N44W. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N62W
to 20N69W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A
surface ridge prevails across much of the basin.

A ridge continues along 28N-29N and will remain in place the next
several days maintaining fairly tranquil conditions over much of
the forecast waters. A middle to upper-level trough will support
unsettled weather over the the far SE part of the area through
Friday evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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