[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu May 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America...

The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists in Central America and
the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea.
This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and
periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during
the next few days. The area of greatest concern, from late
Thursday through Saturday, includes Guatemala and southern
Mexico, from the Guatemala border to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec,
including the Mexican states of Chiapas, SE Veracruz and E
Oaxaca, as an area of low pressure that is along the East
Pacific monsoon trough is absorbed into the CAG. Flash flooding
and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous terrain.
Isolated flash flooding still is possible throughout the
remainder of Central America during the next few days, in
addition to the rains for Guatemala and southern Mexico. Please
refer to your local meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W from
15N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are from 02N to 09N between 30W and 37W. The wave is collocated
with a 700 mb trough, as diagnosed by computer models. The wave
is within the western edge of a moisture plume that is seen in
total precipitable water imagery.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W to 08N17W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W
to 04N31W, 03N35W, to 01N43W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 02N northward between 05W and 09W, and from
04N to 07N between 11W and 18W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layered ridge continues to cover the Gulf of Mexico, from
NE to SW. Mostly fair weather prevails across the basin.
Moderate SE winds cover the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure, extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico, will
maintain moderate easterly winds in most of the basin through
Saturday. A broad area of low pressure in Central America, and a
diurnal trough moving off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
each night, will enhance NE winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico
during the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes from NW Cuba to Guatemala.

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, are covering the areas
that extend from 15N to 23N between 63W and 83W, including:
Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and surrounding islands
and waters. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in the coastal waters of

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia, to the coast
of Panama near 10N80W, across and beyond the border of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua, toward the coastal waters of El Salvador.
Numerous strong rainshowers are in NW Venezuela in Lake
Maracaibo. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in
Colombia from 06N northward between Colombia's border with
Venezuela and Colombia's border with Panama.

High pressure north of the region will maintain moderate to
fresh trade winds in the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. A
broad area of low pressure in Central America will produce
widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms in the western
Caribbean Sea during the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 33N25W cyclonic circulation
center, through 29N34W, to a 28N53W cyclonic circulation center,
to a 28N67W cyclonic circulation center, toward NW Cuba.

A stationary front passes through 32N36W to 25N43W, curving to
24N46W and 25N50W. A surface trough 30N62W 27N63W 24N63W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW and N of the
stationary front, and elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W
and 72W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center that
is near 28N68W, to Lake Okeechobee in Florida.

A ridge along 28N will remain in place during the next several
days, and produce fairly benign marine weather conditions
through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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