[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America...

The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists across Central America
and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea.
This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and
periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during
the next few days. The area of greatest concern late Thursday
through Saturday includes Guatemala and southern Mexico, from the
Guatemala border to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, including the
Mexican states of Chiapas, SE Veracruz and E Oaxaca, as an area of
low pressure along the East Pacific monsoon trough is absorbed
into the CAG. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas
of mountainous terrain. In addition to Guatemala and southern
Mexico, isolated flash flooding is still possible throughout the
remainder of Central America during the next few days. Please
refer to your local meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was moved back 1 degree as
newly available data indicate the previous analysis was slightly
too far west. The wave is analyzed along 31W/32W from 13N
southward. For the past 24-48 hours, the wave has been moving
slowly westward around 5 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover
the area from 03N-08N between 30W-34W. The wave is collocated with
a 700 mb trough, as diagnosed by computer models. The wave lies
within the western edge of a moisture plume seen in total
precipitable water imagery.

The weakening Caribbean Sea tropical wave that was along 66/67W
at 29/1200 UTC has been removed from the analysis as of 1800 UTC
today.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near
11N15W to 07N17W to 06N20W. The ITCZ begins near 06N20W to 06N28W,
then continues W of a tropical wave from 04N34W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm
of the ITCZ between 20W-28W. Farther east, scattered to numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 01N-07N
between 06W-15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layered ridge continues to cover the Gulf of Mexico. As a
result, mostly fair weather prevails across the basin. Moderate SE
winds cover the eastern Gulf, while fresh SE winds are found in
the western Gulf north of 22N and west of 92W. Satellite imagery
and surface observations indicate that smoke from fires in Mexico
is present in the SW Gulf west of a line from Coatzacoalcos to
Brownsville. The smoke is creating hazy conditions in this area.
Visibilities as low as 4 miles have recently been reported.

High pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain
moderate to fresh SE return flow over the western Gulf through
tonight. Winds will diminish by late week as a high pressure
ridge weakens and drifts southward to near 28N. A diurnal trough
forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to moderate
E to NE winds each night as it moves into the southwestern Gulf.
Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over
the southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Central American
Gyre (CAG) for more information.

A broad area of upper-level divergence coupled with low-mid level
troughing covers the western Caribbean as well as the north-
central Caribbean over the Greater Antilles. As a result,
scattered to numerous moderate rainshowers with embedded isolated
thunderstorms cover the area from 15N-21N between 65W-83W,
including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and portions of Cuba.
Isolated to scattered showers extend east of that over the Virgin
and northern Leeward Islands. Isolated showers and tstorms are
also south of 15N between 73W-80W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, Panama,
southern Costa Rica, western and northern Nicaragua, and much of
Honduras, with more isolated activity over Guatemala and southern
Mexico. The convection in NW Venezuela and N Colombia is very
close to being over the Caribbean Sea, south of 12N between 69W-
75W. The convection over Honduras may also be affecting waters
just off the N coast of Honduras. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate trades across much of the Caribbean.

A weak and narrow high pressure ridge along 27N-28N will maintain
moderate to locally fresh trades across much of the basin through
the weekend. Broad low pressure across Central America and the
adjacent eastern Pacific waters will help to produce showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean for the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid-level ridge is centered over Florida, creating fair weather
N of 24N between Florida and 68W. A 1018 mb surface high is near
27N71W. Ridging over this area is expected to persist through
Sunday, leading to quiescent winds and slight to moderate seas. A
weak upper-level low near 29N67W is providing scattered clouds and
isolated showers east of 68W from 25N-29N. A stationary front
enters the central Atlantic waters near 32N38W and extends SW to
25N43W to 24N47W. A shear line extends from 24N47W to a 1016 mb
surface low near 26N63W. Isolated to scattered showers are near
the low and shear line from 24N-28N between 51W-64W. Over the east
Atlantic, two surface troughs are analyzed - one from 30N34W to
24N31W and the other from 31N18N to 28N23W. No significant weather
accompanies the first trough, but overcast skies and light
showers surround the trough that is farther east.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net