[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy Rainfall Potential in Central America...

The Central American Gyre (CAG) persists across Central America
and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean and the SW Caribbean Sea.
This circulation will continue to bring abundant moisture and
periods of heavy rainfall, in general, to Central America during
the next few days. Heavy rain is likely for parts of Costa Rica
and Nicaragua today through Wednesday, as the current 1011 mb low
pressure center that is in the eastern Pacific near 10N86W, moves
toward land. The CAG is expected strengthen as the monsoon trough
moves northward. The heavy rain threat will increase, for the
areas that extend from SE Mexico to Honduras, late this week.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in areas of mountainous
terrain. Expect the greatest rainfall amounts in parts of Costa
Rica, Panama and Nicaragua during the next few days. The heavy
rainfall amounts are likely at times, also, in parts of southern
Guatemala, El Salvador and southern Honduras. Please refer to
your local meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 12N
southward, moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 03N to 08N
between 29W and 33W.

A SE Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W from 14N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Scattered showers are inland in Venezuela
associated with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea,
near 10N15W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 04N29W,
to 03N24W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection are along the
ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 23W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a NE Gulf of Mexico high centered
near 30N84W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh southeast
winds across the basin with fair weather. A surface trough is
along the coast of Mexico from 21N98W to 18N93W in the Bay of
Campeche. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico is still visible in
satellite data spread across northeast Mexico and Texas coast.
Smoke is not as dense compared to previous days but it is still
noticeable with hazy conditions west of 93W.

High pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain
moderate to fresh SE return flow over the western Gulf through Wed
night. Winds will diminish by late week as high pressure ridge
weakens and drifts southward to near 28N. A diurnal trough forming
over the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to moderate E to NE
winds each night as it moves into the southwestern Gulf. Smoke
from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over the
southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected for the first couple days of the 2019
hurricane season.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Central American
Gyre (CAG) for more information.

A mid-level ridge over the SE Caribbean is keeping skies relatively
clear from 10N-15N between 62W-70W. A tropical wave in the SE
Caribbean is producing scattered showers remaining inland over
Venezuela. A strong mid-level ridge also prevails from the
eastern Gulf of Mexico across South Florida to the Bahamas. In
between the two ridges, abundant mid to upper level moisture is
being transported from Central America northeastward toward
Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. A surface
trough is observed near 19N82W to 14N86W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen in the vicinity of the trough. Strongest
convection is north and south of Jamaica, and across the Windward
Passage. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms
continue to affect Puerto Rico. Scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate trades across the Caribbean.

A weak and narrow high pressure ridge along about 28N will maintain
moderate to locally fresh trades across much of the basin through
the weekend. Broad low pressure across Central America and the
adjacent eastern Pacific waters will help to produce showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean for the next few days. No
tropical cyclone activity is expected for the first couple days
of the 2019 hurricane season

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary cold front passes through 31N38W to 23N47W. A shear
line continues from 23N47W to 26N57W, to 25N63W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the boundary. Further west,
a 1018 mb ridge prevails extending into the northeast Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough is noted along the southern FL coast from
27N79W to 25N80W. Towards the east, two troughs are present, one
from 31N-24N between 31W/32W, and the second trough near 31N17W to
28N22W. Scattered showers are possible near the trough axis.

A weak and narrow high pressure ridge extending west to east
along about 28N will persist in place through Sun. Quiescent winds
and slight to moderate seas are expected. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected for the first couple days of the 2019
hurricane season.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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