[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

A Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture
across Central America, which will produce heavy rainfall across
portions of Central America over the next several days. Life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas
of mountainous terrain. According to the National Meteorological
Institute of Costa Rica reported rainfall accumulations of half
inch to 2 inches in the northern and Caribbean zone of Costa Rica.
Additional accumulations of half inch to an inch is possible with
localized higher amounts up to 2.0 inches in the next 12 hours in
these zones. Please refer to your local meteorological service
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43/44W from 10N
southward to the Equator, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered
showers associated with the wave are noted 180 nm east of the
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N33W to 01N43W, then
continues west of a tropical wave from 01N45W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south
of the monsoon trough 08N-04N between 10W-15W. Farther west,
scattered moderate convection is moving along the ITCZ from
04N-02N between 22W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to extend across the basin from a 1020
mb high pressure located in the Mid-Atlantic. Fair weather
prevails under this ridge of high pressure across the basin.
Scatterometer data suggests moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds across the southern portion of the basin while gentle is
noted north of 26N. Fresh to strong easterly wind is present
along the Florida Straits and in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

A trough is along the Florida coast from 28N82W to 26N82W.
Another trough is seen along the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N85W to
the coast of Mexico near 16N93W. Smoke continues to be dense over
the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 95W with
some observations near the coast of Mexico reporting hazy skies.

High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will persist through
early next week, maintaining moderate to fresh SE flow over the
northwest Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur at night
in the SW Gulf as well associated with a surface trough moving off
the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will
maintain hazy skies generally over much of the far western and
southwestern Gulf for the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along the
south central American coast from Honduras across Panama to
northern Colombia in the southern Caribbean. The Pacific monsoon
trough is noted moving along the Panama coast to Colombia which is
aiding the convective activity in the region. See the section
above for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over
Central America.

Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the
Greater Antilles with light showers approaching the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle trades are noted in most of the basin,
with moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean and north of
Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trades across the basin through early next week. Broad low
pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific
waters will continue to result in scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean through at
least early next week as a developing low off the coast of
Nicaragua tracks northwestward. Otherwise, a tropical wave will
move across the Lesser Antilles by Mon evening and across the
eastern Caribbean Tue through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave,
currently moving across the central Atlantic.

The 1022 mb high pressure in the Mid-Atlantic is ridging across
the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a cold front continues to push
across the central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N40W and
extends to the southwest near 27N47W. From that point, the tail-
end of the boundary stalls to 25N62W. Showers are seen moving
along the front, with some embedded thunderstorms along the tail-
end of the boundary. A surface trough is analyzed from the western
Atlantic to Hispaniola, near 28N64W to 19N72W. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms are seen near this trough particularly
from north of Hispaniola to the southern Bahamas. Otherwise,
surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

A stationary front along 25N will dissipate by late tonight. High
pressure ridging along 30N and west of 70W will gradually shift
southward to near 28N by early next week in response to a cold
front that will drop south of 30N Sat. The front will slowly move
south and become stationary near 25N by late on Sun before it
dissipates. High pressure ridging will then build along 29N early
next week.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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