[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

A Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture
across Central America, which will produce heavy rainfall across
portions of Central America over the next several days. This
activity could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local
meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W from 14N
southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers associated
with the wave are noted south of 06N between 39W-44W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 08N13W
to 05N17W to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 03N36W, then
continues west of a tropical wave from 03N40W to the coast of
Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
tropical waves section, scattered to numerous moderate with
embedded isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-09N between
08W-23W. Farther west, scattered showers are from 07N-10N between
52W-59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic into the SE U.S. and
across most of the basin with fair weather. Latest ASCAT data
shows gentle to moderate easterly winds prevailing across the
Gulf waters. Smoke continues over the Bay of Campeche and the
western Gulf mainly west of 93W with some observations near the
coast of Mexico reporting hazy skies.

High pressure will continue to maintain return flow across the
basin through early next week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will
occur at night in the SW Gulf through the weekend associated with
a surface trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula. On Sunday, the
pressure gradient over the region will diminish, thus resulting
in mainly moderate to locally fresh winds continuing through the
middle of the week. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will
maintain hazy skies generally within 120 nm of the eastern coast
of Mexico over the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Currently, scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted
over the south central Caribbean related to the Central American
Gyre that is developing. This activity extends south of 15N
between 75W-84W. See the section above for more details on the
excessive rainfall threat over Central America.

Scattered showers are noted over the northern portion of the basin
mainly north of 15N and east of 80W. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate trades prevailing across the basin at this time.

Ridging north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh
trades across the basin through early next week. Broad low
pressure across Central America and adjacent eastern Pacific
waters will continue to generate heavy showers and thunderstorms
over the SW Caribbean through the middle of the week. These
showers will extend to the NW Caribbean waters on Tue as a
developing low off the coast of Nicaragua tracks northwestward.
Otherwise, a tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles
Monday evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave,
currently moving across the central Atlantic.

A 1021 mb surface high is near 31N78W. To the east, a frontal
system enters the central Atlantic waters as a stationary front
from 31N45W to 25N75W. Scattered showers are noted along the
front. A surface trough is analyzed north of Hispaniola from
24N66W to 20N72W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder
of the basin.

The stationary front will dissipate through tonight. High
pressure off northeast Florida will dissipate late today ahead of
a cold front that will move south of 30N by Sat. The front will
slowly move south and stall along 25N by late Sun then dissipate.
A ridge will build along 29N in the wake of the front by early
next week.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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