[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall Over Central America: A Central American Gyre
will continue to bring abundant moisture across Central America,
which will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America for the next several days. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous
terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological service for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 13N southward,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
00N-06N along and within 300 nm E of the wave axis. The wave is
clearly depicted in CIMSS TPW and CIRA 850-700 mb LPW imagery.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 04N34W, then
continues west of a tropical wave from 03N38W to the coast of
Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
tropical waves section, numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 02N-06N between 16W-23W, and near the coast of Africa
from 05N-08N between 11W-14W. Farther west, scattered showers are
from 04N-07N between 40W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends from the west Atlantic into the SE
U.S. and across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Latest ASCAT pass
shows gentle NE to E winds in the NE Gulf, with fresh to strong E
winds across the southern Gulf, and fresh to strong E to SE winds
in the west-central Gulf. Most of the Gulf is free of any shower
activity except for an isolated shower or two in the SE Gulf.
Scattered showers and tstorms are just inland over Mexico between
Tuxpan and Veracruz, and there are no signs that this activity is
moving toward the Gulf waters. Smoke continues to be noted on
visible satellite imagery in the Bay of Campeche and the western
Gulf with some observations near the coast of Mexico reporting
hazy skies. The smoke is most dense south of 25N, west of 93W and
within 120 nm of the coast of Mexico, where visibilities could be
as low as 2 to 4 nautical miles at times.

High pressure extending from the W Atlantic into the NE Gulf will
maintain fresh to strong SE winds across the western Gulf through
Friday. Winds will diminish and become more easterly across most
of the basin this weekend as high pressure reorganizes across the
W Atlantic and builds W along 32N into SE Louisiana. Smoke from
fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the western
Gulf and Bay of Campeche the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Currently, numerous strong convection is seen over El Salvador, SW
Honduras and extreme NW Nicaragua, with scattered moderate
convection elsewhere over SE Guatemala, western Nicaragua and NW
Costa Rica. See section above for more details on the excessive
rainfall threat over Central America.

The monsoon trough extends along 10N from NW Colombia near 74W to
northern Costa Rica near 84W. Scattered moderate with isolated
strong convection is present in the SW Caribbean from 11N-14N
between 80W-83W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are over
the northern Caribbean from 17N to the Greater Antilles between
Puerto Rico and Cuba. Broken multi-layered clouds with isolated to
scattered light to moderate showers cover the remainder of the
eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh trades are over the far
western Caribbean within 180 nm of Central America, with locally
strong winds north of Honduras. Gentle trades cover most of the
eastern and central Caribbean, except fresh near the coast of
Colombia.

High pressure across the NW Atlantic will maintain fresh trade
winds across most of the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras through Saturday. Broad low pressure across Central
America and the adjacent eastern Pacific will persist through
Tuesday to produce active weather across the SW Caribbean. A
tropical wave will move into the tropical Atlantic waters late
Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 32N46W and
extends westward to 26N57W to 26N68W to the central Bahamas near
24N75W. Isolated to scattered showers are along and within 90 nm
south of the front east of 70W. A broad inverted surface trough is
observed from 25N65W to Haiti. The upper level low near 23N68W is
starting to weaken, but it is still enhancing scattered showers
and tstorms from 21N-24N between 65W-69W. Otherwise, the remainder
of the basin is seeing surface ridging from a 1027 mb high
pressure located near 39N20W.

The cold front over the western and central Atlantic will
continue to move eastward through today, then stall and slowly
dissipate along 25N tonight through Sunday. The broad inverted
trough will persist N of Hispaniola through today. A second cold
front will sink southward into the northern waters Saturday
evening and gradually merge with the remnants of the old cold
front along 24N to 25N Sunday night through Monday.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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