[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
738 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Sub-tropical Storm Andrea...

Sub-tropical Storm Andrea has developed in the west Atlantic,
centered near 29.0N 68.7W at 20/2100 UTC, moving N at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

SE winds ranging between 20-30 kt with frequent gusts up to gale
force are expected in the northeast Gulf of Mexico north of 26N
and west of 96W tonight. These conditions are expected through
early Tuesday as a strong low pressure system forms in the
southern plains. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product,
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

Northeast gale-force winds are off the coast of Morocco in the
marine zone of Agadir, while near-gale winds will spread to the
marine zone in the Canarias. Near-gale conditions are expected to
continue in Agadir through Tuesday. For more information, please
see the latest forecast from Meteo France at
http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/meter.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 18W from 10N southward. Scattered
showers are noted out 80 to 100 nm on either side of the wave
axis mainly south of 05N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over land. The ITCZ extends west of a
tropical wave from 05N19W to 01N46W. Scattered showers are noted
along the ITCZ between 20W-28W and west of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the northwest Gulf.

A 1018 mb surface high is centered over northern Florida and
prevailing across the while basin. Light to gentle winds are noted over
eastern Gulf, while moderate to fresh southeast winds prevail over
the western half of the basin. Smoke continues to be noted in
satellite data and observations over the western Gulf west of 91W
and south of 23N.

Fresh southeast winds and building seas will continue through
tonight across the western Gulf. Fresh to strong easterly winds
near the west coast of Yucatan Peninsula are possible each night
as a thermal trough moves west across the Bay of Campeche each
night. Smoke and haze from fires across southern Mexico will
reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche
the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection continues across the southwestern
portion of the basin south of 16N and west of 78W. Moderate to
fresh trade winds are in the southern Caribbean, with the
strongest winds off the Venezuelan coast. Light to gentle trades
prevail elsewhere.

Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of
the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday
night, then decreasing by Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the recently upgraded
Sub-tropical Storm Andrea.

Scattered moderate convection prevails near Andrea mainly north
of 22N between 64W-72W. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 28N48W and
a 1022 mb high near 33N23W. A surface trough is analyzed between
these two highs from 29N38W to 25N40W. No significant convection
is related to this trough at this time.

Aside from the west Atlantic where Andrea is located, moderate
winds will generally prevail across the region through Fri night.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net