[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
726 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far East Atlantic Gale Warning...

N to NE Gale winds are off the coast of Morocco in the marine
zone of Agadir. Near gales will spread to the marine zone
Canarias. Near gale conditions are expected to persist in Agadir
on Monday. For more information, please see the latest forecast
from Meteo France at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/meter.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N40W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is along the monsoon trough from 02N-09N between 13W-
20W. Isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01S-05N
between 44W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A squall line is over the north central Gulf of Mexico from 30N89W
to 28N93W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-30N between
88W-92W. Elsewhere, Scattered moderate convection is over S
Florida and Cuba. 10-15 kt SE return surface flow is over the
Gulf of Mexico. Smoke is noted over the W Gulf W of 94W and S of
26N.

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the northern Gulf
and lower pressures in NE Mexico will support strong SE to S winds
and building seas over the western Gulf Mon night through Thu
night. Smoke and haze from fires in Mexico will reduce
visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche the
next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 11N73W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is over N Colombia, Panama, Costa
Rica, Nicaragua, and the SW Caribbean S of 14N. Widely scattered
moderate convection is also inland over Honduras, Guatemala, and
Belize. Scattered moderate convection is over most of Cuba, and
central Hispaniola. Scattered showers are over the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico and Jamaica. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the
Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia.

Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of
the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night.
Smoke and haze from fires in Central America may reduce
visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 32N68W. A dissipating
stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N52W to 28N63W. A
surface trough continues to 24N70W to 21N73W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 24N-30N between 62W-70W. A 1026 mb
high is over the E Atlantic near 34N27W. A Gale is off the coast
of Morocco. See above. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N76W. Upper level
diffluence E of the center is enhancing convection. Another upper
level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 25N38W. Scattered
showers are within 210 nm NE of the center.

Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the Tropical N Atlantic
the next few days. An area of low pressure is expected to form by
Monday several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system
could develop into a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone
late Monday or Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward.
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development by Wednesday. Otherwise, moderate winds are
generally expected across most of the region the next few days.
Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information at http://hurricanes.gov.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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