[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190000 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far East Atlantic Gale Warning: ASCAT continues to observe near
gale NE winds off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone
Agadir. Expect N to NE winds to increase to gale force in Agadir
after 1200 UTC on Sunday. Near gales will spread to the marine
zones Tarfaya and Canarias. Near gales to gales are expected to
persist in Agadir on Monday. For more information, please see
the latest forecast from Meteo France at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 06N18W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N36W
to 01S44W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 01N-08N between 05W-19W, and
from 08N-11N east of 15W. Scattered showers are noted within 210
nm north of the ITCZ between 28W-33W, and within 180 nm of the
coast of Brazil from 03S-04N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, with a 1017 mb high
centered along the Florida/Georgia border. Upper-level troughing
is over the southern half of Florida and the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Fresh SE winds are over the western half of the Gulf with
moderate anticyclonic flow in the E Gulf. The Gulf is mostly free
of significant showers or thunderstorms, but isolated
thunderstorms are noted along the north coast of Cuba, the SW
coast of Florida, and the Florida Big Bend area. Smoke and haze
from fires in Mexico continue to reduce visibility west of 91W,
with recently observed visibilities as low as 3 to 5 miles, and
this will continue during the next several days.

A line of severe thunderstorms is mostly located at least 90 nm
inland to the north of Houston Texas, extending NE. The southern
end of this line may move near the south coast of Louisiana Sunday
morning, in a much weaker state, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. SE winds will strengthen to strong breeze across
the western Gulf Mon night through Wed night ahead of an intense
low pressure system that will move through the southern Great
Plains of the U.S.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging over the Caribbean Sea is leading to slightly
drier conditions over the western Caribbean compared to the last
few days, with most of the basin not seeing significant
precipitation. However, scattered thunderstorms are occurring over
Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, northern Yucatan Peninsula and the NW
Caribbean north of 20N. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted in the far SW Caribbean south of 11.5N between NW Colombia
and southern Costa Rica due to influences from the East Pacific
monsoon trough. Expect thunderstorms and rainfall to increase
during the next few days for the SW Caribbean south of 14N west of
75W, and over portions of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will prevail across the
south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Mon.
Smoke and haze from fires in Central America could reduce
visibilities in the Gulf of Honduras during the next several
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N51W to 27N57W, then continues as a
stationary front to 24N73W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 180 nm of the stationary front. Scattered
showers are near and within 120 nm ahead of the cold front. A weak
mid-upper level low near the NW Bahamas and southern Florida is
producing isolated showers and storms in the area. Scattered
thunderstorms are over Cuba, the Florida Straits, the Old Bahamas
Channel and the waters between Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas. A
1021 mb high is near 31N66W. Farther E, a 1025 mb high near 36N31W
extends a ridge over much of the east-central Atlantic. An upper-
level low near 24N17W and surface trough just off the coast of
Western Sahara is producing scattered thunderstorms north of the
upper-low and south of the Canary Islands. See section above for
information on the gale warning off the coast of Morocco.

The aforementioned stationary front in the W Atlantic will weaken
and dissipate tonight. Moderate trade winds are expected across
most of the region as high pressure remains in place near 30N
through Mon. An area of low pressure is expected to form several
hundred miles south or southwest of Bermuda by early next week.
Gradual development of this system into a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is possible during the early and middle part of next week
while it moves northward or northeastward. Please see the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook for more information at
http://hurricanes.gov.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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