[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM EDT Thu May 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 15N17W to 12N20W. A surface trough is along 25W and south of
08N. The ITCZ reaches from 02N26W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near the surface trough south of 05N between
24W-27W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing along and within
300 nm south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate southeast winds persist across most of the
basin, between high pressure centered over the Atlantic and low
pressure anchored over southwest Gulf near 19N95W. Moderate to
fresh southeast winds are noted over the far southwest Gulf,
closer to the low pressure. Areas of smoke are evident over the
western Gulf in satellite imagery and in coastal observations,
emerging from agricultural and forest fires over southern Mexico
and northern Central America.

A weak cold front will enter the far northwest Gulf this weekend
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. A trough will
develop each night over the Yucatan Peninsula, and support pulses
of fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Gulf at
night and into the morning. Smoke and haze from ongoing
agricultural fires in Mexico will likely continue to reduce
visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche over the
next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak surface ridging north of the region is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds over the south central Caribbean and north
of Honduras, while gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail
elsewhere. Buoy and altimeter satellite data show wave heights of
5 to 7 ft in the south central and southeast Caribbean, and
generally 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is
active north of Panama and Costa Rica, enhanced by the typical
surface trough that prevails along 10N. Smoke from agricultural
and forest fires over Honduras is noticeable on satellite imagery,
enveloping the Gulf of Honduras, the Bay Islands, Belize and the
southern portion of Mexico.

Fresh easterly winds will continue across the south central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun before
strengthening Mon. Smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in
Central America will maintain hazy skies and reduced visibilities
north of Honduras through much of the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb surface low is centered near 29N57W, with cold front
extending from it to 26N66W, then a surface trough continues from
that point to 27N76W. A stationary front extends from the low to
30N40W. Scattered showers are noted along the fronts/trough.
Scattered showers are also active over the northern Bahamas, in
part due to lower level confluence along the trailing remnants of
a front through that area, but also due to divergence aloft
related to an upper low parked over south Florida. Surface ridging
prevails elsewhere anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near
25N44W and another 1020 mb high near 26N33W.

A second front will move through the north central Atlantic and
reinforce the front currently over the region. This will push the
ridge along 24N farther southward through late Fri, accompanied by
fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft over the waters
north of 25N between 35W and 50W. The strong trade winds off
Guyana and Suriname will diminish as the trough moves inland and
weakens, but seas will remain as high as 8 ft in easterly swell
into Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the northeast
Florida coast by late Mon, and move eastward over the waters north
of 25N to 65W through mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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