[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Thu May 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 05N18W. A surface trough is along 20W from
00N-07N. The ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 03N26W to 00N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along a surface trough from 01N-07N between 18W-23W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the
ITCZ from 01S-04S between 31W-38W. Another surface trough is
north of the ITCZ along 50W from 00N-07N. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of this trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is producing 10-20 kt SE surface flow over the
Gulf of Mexico. Strongest winds are over the W Gulf. Low stratus
clouds are over the W Gulf N of 24N and W of 94W. Elsewhere, radar
imagery shows scattered moderate convection over the NE Gulf from
28N-30N between 84W-85W.

High pressure will prevail across the region through Monday. A
weak cold front will enter the far NW Gulf this weekend. A trough
will develop each night over the Yucatan Peninsula, and support
pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in the south central Gulf
at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico could
reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche
over the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Isolated moderate convection
remains inland over S Guatemala, and W Honduras. Scattered
moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N, NW
Colombia, and W Venezuela. Scattered showers are over the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and E Cuba. More scattered
showers are over Costa Rica and Panama. In the upper levels, a
ridge is over the Caribbean with upper level moisture S of 15N and
strong subsidence N of 15N.

Fresh easterly winds will continue across the south-central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun before
strengthening Monday. Smoke from ongoing fires in Central America
will maintain hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of
Honduras through much of the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N60W. A cold
front extends W from the low to 26N67W to 27N75W. A warm front
extends E from the low to 29N57W. A cold front continues E to
beyond 31N41W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts.
A 1021 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 26N31W.

The surface low and associated fronts will move E and reach the E
Atlantic by Sunday. A new cold front will move into the W
Atlantic on Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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