[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 AM EDT Thu May 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to
00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 01N-07N
between 17W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ
from 01S-04S between 31W-36W. A surface trough is north of the
ITCZ along 47W from 00N-08N. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of
the trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is producing 10-20 kt SE surface flow over the
Gulf of Mexico. Strongest winds are over the W Gulf. Low stratus
clouds are over the W Gulf N of 24N and W of 94W. Elsewhere, radar
imagery shows scattered moderate convection over the NE Gulf from
28N-30N between 84W-85W.

High pressure will prevail across the region through Monday. A
weak cold front will enter the far NW Gulf this weekend. A trough
will develop each night over the Yucatan Peninsula, and support
pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in the south central Gulf
at night. Smoke and haze from ongoing fires in Mexico could
reduce visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche
over the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Isolated moderate convection
remains inland over S Guatemala, and W Honduras. Scattered
moderate convection is over NW Colombia, and W Venezuela.
Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and E Cuba. More scattered showers are over Costa Rica
and Panama. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean
with upper level moisture S of 15N and strong subsidence N of 15N.

Fresh easterly winds will continue across the south-central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun before
strengthening Monday. Smoke from ongoing fires in Central America
will maintain hazy skies and reduced visibilities north of
Honduras through much of the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N60W. A cold
front extends W from the low to 26N73W. A warm front extends E
from the low to 30N55W. A cold front continues E to beyond 31N46W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. A 1023 mb high
is over the E Atlantic near 25N35W.

Showers over the N Bahamas, due to the remnants of an old front,
will dissipate through Thursday with high pressure building in
its wake. A cold front will move into the far northwest forecast
waters on Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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