[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 AM EDT Tue May 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N20W. A surface trough is from 08N22W to
01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 01N34W. Another surface
trough is from 08N34W to 00N35W. The ITCZ continues again from
00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-05S between 10W-20W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 4N-08S between
28W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between
40W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 07/0300 UTC, a 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of
Mexico near 29N86W. A cold front extends from Daytona Beach
Florida to Sarasota Florida, then continues to the E Gulf of
Mexico near 25N87W. A stationary front continues to N of Corpus
Christi Texas near 28N97W. Scattered showers linger over central
Florida. Scattered moderate convection is over S Texas and NE
Mexico from 25N-27N between 96W- 100W. Scattered moderate
convection is also over the Bay of Campeche from from 18N-21N
between 95W-97W. South of the front, light to gentle east-
southeast winds are seen, with gentle to moderate northeasterly
winds north of the boundary.

The front will meander overnight then begin to drift northward
across western portions of the Gulf on Tue. A trough will develop
each night over the Yucatan Peninsula, then drift westward into
the SW Gulf each night before dissipating each morning. This
trough will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds in the
SW Gulf during the evening and overnight hours. Smoke from ongoing
agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies with reduced
visibilities in the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate to
convection is over the N Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over S Guatemala, the Gulf of
Honduras, and W Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over N Colombia, and central Venezuela. In the
upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with upper level
moisture.

Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail in the south- central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through early Wednesday before
diminishing. Smoke and haze from ongoing agricultural fires could
reduce visibilities north of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N74W to Daytona Beach
Florida near 29N81W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
of the front. A 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
26N54W. Another 1022 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 26N32W.

High pressure ridge extending westward along 26N across the
forecast waters will retreat slowly eastward through Wednesday.
This will enable the cold front moving off Florida to shift
southeastward across the northeastern waters. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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