[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 PM EDT Thu May 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tight pressure gradient developing across the east and central
Caribbean this morning will lead to brief gale-force winds across
the near and offshore waters of Colombia tonight. These east-
northeast gale force winds are expected to last through Friday
morning, with seas building to 10 to 13 ft by Friday morning. As
the pressure gradient weakens by Friday, winds are also expected
to diminish and weaken. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for further details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the West African coast near the
Sierra Leone-Guinea border near 09N13W to 03.5N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 03.5N22W to 03.5N28W to the coast of Brazil near
01S46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted about the
monsoon trof from 03.5N to 08.5N from 18W eastward to the coast.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging across the northern Gulf coast has begun to
weaken slightly today as an inverted trough across the Bahamas
overnight has shifted slightly WNW across southern Florida and the
Florida keys. This is yielding light to moderate east to east-
southeast winds across the north half of the basin. A few narrow
lines of moderate showers can been seen in satellite imagery
across the northeast quarter of the basin. An outflow boundary has
shifted southward off the southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas
coasts late this morning, induced by a middle level disturbance
moving slowly eastward across far eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. Modest showers are along this boundary over the area
coastal waters with more significant convection presently
developing over south central Louisiana moving eastward towards
Baton Rouge. Elsewhere generally fair weather prevails across the
rest of the basin, with moderate to fresh east-southeast winds
across the central and southwestern Gulf. Ongoing agricultural
fires are generating widespread smoke which could reduce
visibility over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche through
today.

The trough across the Florida peninsula this morning will move
west-northwestward today, reaching the eastern Gulf this afternoon
and evening, then weaken into Friday as it continues to move
north of the area. The daily trough off northwest Yucatan will
support occasional pulses of fresh to strong winds during the
evenings through early next week. Elsewhere, high pressure over
the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the
northeast Gulf and moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere,
diminishing through Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
developing gale north of Colombia.

Scattered shallow to moderate tradewind convection continues
moving west-northwest across Puerto Rico, and much of the
Dominican Republic, and area beginning to develop across far
eastern Cuba. Tradewind cumulus is also growing across much of
interior Nicaragua and the east half of Honduras, where scattered
showers are developing. Morning scatterometer data shows fresh to
strong tradewinds across the basin east of 80W, with 25-30 kt
winds offshore of Colombia between 11N and 13.5N Fresh tradewinds
are seen across the outer waters of the Gulf of Honduras. The rest
of the basin is under gentle to moderate trades.

A tightening pressure gradient will continue to gradually
develop between high pressure centered just west of Bermuda and
low pressure over Colombia, as the trough across Florida and the
Bahamas shifts farther westward later today. This pattern will
support strong to near gale force northeast to east winds over the
the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the rest of
the week, reaching minimal gale force along the coast of Colombia
tonight. Winds will begin to diminish and decrease in areal
coverage this weekend into early next week as the high pressure
weakens and allows for the pressure gradient to slacken.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low to middle level disturbance supports the surface trough
extending from the Florida Keys across south Florida to near
30N79W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection occurring
behind the westward moving trough is occurring across the northern
half of the Bahamas. Satellite imagery this morning shows several
outflow boundaries emanating northward from some of this
convection, suggesting strong gusty winds. As the disturbance and
surface trough shift westward today, expect increasing afternoon
convection across much of the interior Florida peninsula, with
scattered squalls and isolated thunderstorms moving into the
eastern coastal waters and impacting the coasts. Fresh to locally
strong east to east-southeast winds currently prevailing across
the Bahamas and most of the waters west of 70W will begin to back
and become more south to southeast this afternoon and tonight.
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity will continue behind
these features tonight.

A 1028 mb high is centered near Bermuda this morning and is
inducing fresh to locally strong tradewinds south of 20N from
40W into the east and northeastern Caribbean. Seas across this
area are generally 6-8 ft this morning. The high will shift very
slowly east-southeast and weaken slightly through Sat to maintain
these current conditions through Friday before diminishing
Saturday.

A cold front will move over the far northwestern forecast waters
Sunday night, then weaken as it quickly moves across the waters
north and northeast of the Bahamas through Monday night.

Weak high pressure across the northeast Atlantic is producing a
modest pressure gradient across the tropical eastern Atlantic, and
producing moderate to fresh north to northeast winds from the
Azores to the Cabo Verdes Islands extending into the deep tropics.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Stripling
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