[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Wed May 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough over the Bahamas continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Most of the
convection is occurring well to the east of the trough axis with
scattered showers from 22N to 28N between 70W and 78W. A recent
scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong winds from 24N to 29N
between 70W and 80W. Seas are reaching 8 ft northeast of the
Bahamas. The trough is moving northwestward toward the Florida
Peninsula and will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Thu
where it will likely weaken. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible over portions of the Bahamas and the
Florida Peninsula during the next couple of days.

See the latest Special Tropical Weather Outlook product under
AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N14W
to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to just offshore of the
coast of Brazil near 02S43W. No significant organized convection
is noted along these boundaries at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the trough over the Bahamas that is forecast to move into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico Thu into Fri.

Ongoing agricultural fires are generating widespread smoke which
could reduce visibility over the western Gulf and the Bay of
Campeche.

Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by
a high pressure northeast of the area. The high will continue to
support mainly moderate to fresh SE return flow across the basin,
with seas ranging between 4-7 ft. The high pressure will weaken
this weekend allowing for southeast return flow to diminish
slightly over the central and western Gulf. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the
daily development of a trough across the peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection persists off the coast of western Panama where some
weak surface convergence is noted by a recent scatterometer pass.
There are also scattered showers noted over the Greater Antilles
and adjacent waters.

The Bermuda High well north of the basin and low pressure over
Colombia will support enhanced northeast to east tradewinds in
the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the
week. Winds could reach minimal gale-force over the south-
central Caribbean starting tonight. Winds will diminish by this
weekend as high pressure weakens and the pressure gradient
slackens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details
about the trough over the Bahamas.

A trough is also analyzed in the open Atlantic waters, extending
from 30N38W to 25N41W with no significant convection noted. A
weak 1024 mb surface high is just to the east of the trough near
29N35W. The trough and weak high are both forecast to shift
southeast the next few days as a cold front currently located well
to the north of the discussion waters drops south into the area
by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. That front may
bring a brief increase in winds, along with building seas in
northwest swell into the open Atlantic waters.

High pressure ridging from a 1029 mb high near 34N69W prevails
across the central Atlantic. This high will build southward and
this pattern will generally support moderate to fresh E to SE
winds. The high will weaken and drift eastward Friday through
Sunday, allowing winds to diminish and seas to subside. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse offshore of Hispaniola through late week,
mainly at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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