[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 10N14W to 04N20W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N27W to the coast of Brazil
near 07S35W. Scattered moderate convection is just off the coast
of Sierra Leone from 08N-05N and east of 15W. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen along the ITCZ from 06N-00N between 22W-
28W and from 03S-07S between 31W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough off the coast of Florida is observed near 29N83W to near
25N83W. Otherwise, ridging is seen across the eastern Gulf from a
high pressure in the central Atlantic. Showers are moving off the
Texas and Mexican coast and entering into the western Gulf and
the Bay of Campeche. Light showers are also observed in the north-
central Gulf. Light to gentle east winds are seen in the eastern
Gulf with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds in the western
portion of the basin. Just to the north of the Yucatan, strong
easterly winds are seen on ASCAT.

A trough currently east of the Florida Peninsula will
drift westward, reaching the eastern Gulf Thursday, gradually
weakening as it continues northwest through the end of the week.
Otherwise, high pressure northeast of the area will support
mainly moderate to fresh return flow. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily
development of a trough across the peninsula. The pressure
gradient will weaken this weekend allowing for return flow to
diminish slightly.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection across Cuba and Hispaniola being caused by the surface
trough over the Bahamas is waning with some lingering isolated
showers and thunderstorms off the western coast of Haiti.
Otherwise, some convection is being seen off the coast of Panama
in the southwest Caribbean. Showers are also seen moving across
the Lesser Antilles. Near the Lesser Antilles, trade winds are
gentle to moderate with the rest of the eastern and central
Caribbean seeing moderate to fresh trade winds. North of Colombia,
ASCAT indicates strong trades with the western basin seeing
gentle trades.

High pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia
will support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean and
Gulf of Honduras through the week, pulsing to near gale off the
coast of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours.
Winds will diminish slightly by this weekend as high pressure
weakens and the pressure gradient slackens. Mainly moderate to
fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. N to NE swell will move into
the waters E of the Windward Islands by Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The surface trough bringing strong convection and heavy rains
continues to linger across the Bahamas near 28N72W to eastern Cuba
near 20N76W. Most of the strong convection still occurring is to
the east of the trough over the southeastern islands of the
Bahamas from 24N-21N and west of 71W. Scattered moderate
convection and showers are also seen from 28N-24N west of 69W.
Another trough is located off the coast of northern Brazil from
near 09N49W to near 01N49W. Otherwise, high pressure ridging from
a 1028 mb high near 31N34W is seen across the central Atlantic.
Some light showers are occurring over the Canary Islands.

A surface trough over the southern Bahamas will drift west and
gradually weaken through Thursday while high pressure builds NE
of the area. This pattern will generally support moderate to fresh
E to SE winds, except fresh to strong winds S of 27N through
tonight, shifting NW through Wednesday night. High pressure will
weaken and drift eastward Friday through Sunday, allowing for
winds to diminish and seas to subside. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse offshore of Hispaniola through late week, mainly at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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