[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

As of 31/1500 UTC, a strong cold front from 30N83W to 24N96W to
21N97W is moving slowly southeast across the NW Gulf of Mexico
today. Gale-force winds are over the west Gulf S of 25N W of
front. Seas are between 8 to 13 ft. These conditions will prevail
until tonight. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following
website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 01S20W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 02N-07S between 16W-37W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 02N-03S between 37W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 31/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 30N83W to the W Gulf near 24N96W to Tampico Mexico near
21N97W. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Gulf of
Mexico N of 26N between 91W-98W. Scattered showers are elsewhere
within 90 nm of the front. N of 25N and W of front winds are NE
20-30 kt. Winds E of front are 10 kt or less. A surface trough is
over the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 18N94W depicted by a wind
shift. Elsewhere, fair weather is over the Florida Peninsula and
the far E Gulf of Mexico.

The cold front will extend from northern Florida to the central
Bay of Campeche by tonight. Gale-force winds are presently over
Tampico Mexico adjacent waters and will be over Veracruz adjacent
waters, and the Gulf of Campeche, by tonight. Expect building
seas to 13 ft. The front will stall from Tampa Bay to the western
Yucatan Peninsula by Mon morning and transition back to a cold
front on Tue morning as a low pressure develops along the front
just off the coast of Georgia. The front will move off the SE gulf
waters Tue evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail-end of a stationary front extends from the Atlantic near
24.5N60W to E Hispaniola near 19N69W. Scattered showers are within
60 nm of the front. The Caribbean Sea has 10-20 kt tradewinds with
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds
over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted over the
Leeward Islands, E Cuba, and along the coasts of Costa Rica and W
Panama. In the upper levels, zonal flow and strong subsidence is
suppressing deep convection.

The stationary front will weaken and dissipate by Mon, leaving a
surface trough that will support showers over the NE Caribbean
through the middle of the week. High pressure N of the area will
support fresh to strong NE to E winds near the coast of Colombia
at night beginning tonight. Winds at night along the coast of
Colombia will increase to near gale force by Wed as a stronger
ridge moves N of the area. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade
winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west
of 55W through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 28N73W. A 1012 mb low
is over the W Atlantic near 30N63W. A cold front extends from
31N58W to 24.5N60W. A stationary front continues to E Hispaniola
near 19N69W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm E of the cold
front. A 1027 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 31N42W.

Over the W Atlantic, the stationary front will weaken and
dissipate by Mon, leaving a surface trough that will move west
supporting showers across the southern waters through the middle
of the week. A weak ridge follows this front ahead of the next
cold front expected to move off the NE Florida coast this
evening. Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front,
which will stall over the north-central waters by Mon early in
the afternoon. A low pressure developing off the coast of Georgia
will rapidly deepen along the front and support an area of gale
force winds over the NW and north-central waters on Tue. The low
will drag a cold front that will move across the Bahamas Tue
afternoon through early Wed. High pres will build across the SW
N Atlantic, in the wake of the front Wed and Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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