[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Southwest Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front is moving slowly southeast across the NW Gulf
of Mexico this morning. The pressure gradient behind the front
will induce gale-force winds over the west central Gulf Sunday
afternoon at 31/1500 UTC from 22N to 25N W of front. Seas are
expected to range between 8 to 11 ft. These conditions will
prevail through early Monday. This front is forecast to reach the
western Atlantic on Monday and has the potential to produce gale
force winds over the Atlantic waters near 29N and W of 68W as a
low develops along the front. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or
the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W
to 01N14W. The ITCZ continues from 01N14W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S41W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
along the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. Cluster of scattered
strong convection is concentrated near 05S-00N between 18W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Cold front has moved off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf
stretching from 29N91W to 25N97W. Surface ridging is being
suppress as the front makes its way across the Gulf. Ridge from
the western Atlantic extends into the eastern Gulf coast. The
ASCAT pass depicts light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf
ahead of the front, while moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
western and central Gulf south of 24N to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Upper level subsidence continues to suppress significant
convection over the central and eastern Gulf.

A cold front extending from SE Louisiana to just S
of Brownsville, Texas will reach a position from Panama City, FL
to near Tampico, Mexico this morning, and from northern Florida
to the central Bay of Campeche this evening. As a low pressure
develops along the front E of Florida, it will shift SE extending
from southern Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon evening.
Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front, reaching
gale force across the west-central Gulf today, and across the SW
Gulf this evening and tonight. Expect building seas of up to 12
or 13 ft within the area of gale force winds. The front is forecast
to move slowly across the SE Gulf on Tue, exiting the area by
late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tail end of a cold front over the western Atlantic extends
into western Puerto Rico. Latest information from western PR
indicate more than 1 to 3 inches of rainfall accumulation have
already fallen. Scattered low-topped showers extend across the
Greater and Lower Antilles. Scattered showers are also along the
coasts of Costa Rica, Colombia and Panama. Moderate tradewinds
are over most of the Caribbean, except north of Colombia where
locally fresh to strong winds prevail. Upper level zonal flow and
subsidence continues to suppress significant convection.

A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, extends from
Puerto Rico to just S of Jamaica. This trough will dissipate over
the Caribbean waters today, but it will persist near Puerto Rico
through Mon. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to
strong NE to E winds near the coast of Colombia at night beginning
tonight, with seas building to 8 to 10 ft during the period of
the strongest winds. Otherwise, generally moderate trade winds
will persist across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of
55W through the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb low is centered over the west Atlantic near 29N64W. An
associated cold front enters the area near 31N58W to 18N65W to
the west of Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection is north
of 28N between 52W-58W. A broad 1026 mb high centered near 30N41W
covers much of the central and eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extending from 31N58W to Puerto Rico near 18N66W
will shift slowly E and eventually dissipate NE of Puerto Rico
Mon. High pressure will pass to the NE of the Bahamas in the wake
of the front Sun and Mon. The next cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast by Mon morning, then stall. Rapidly deepening low
pres along the front will support an area of gale force winds over
the waters N of 29N and W of 68W Tue night. High pres will build
over the waters N of the Bahamas Wed and Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net