[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
729 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico this
evening. The pressure gradient behind the front will induce gale-
force winds over the west Gulf Sunday afternoon at 31/1800 UTC
from 22N to 25N W of front. Seas are expected to range between 8
to 11 ft. These conditions will prevail through early Monday.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ
between 15W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored over the
western Atlantic. The latest ASCAT pass depicts light to gentle
winds over the eastern Gulf, while moderate to fresh winds prevail
over the western Gulf. Upper level subsidence continues to
suppress significant convection.

A cold front will move off the Texas coast this evening. The
front is forecast to reach from Panama City to 27N90W to Tampico,
Mexico near 22N97W by Sunday morning, then stall just S of Tampa
Bay to 25N90W to the central Gulf of Campeche by Monday morning.
Strong to near gale force northerly winds and building seas will
follow the front over the western Gulf on Sunday. Winds are
forecast to reach gale-force strength across the west-central
Gulf by Sunday afternoon, and across the SW Gulf by Sunday
evening. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through Monday as
the front shifts and weakens southeast of the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from east Hispaniola near 19N69W to
southern Jamaica near 17N78W. Scattered low-topped showers are
within 60 nm north of the trough. Scattered showers are also
along the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate tradewinds
are over most of the Caribbean, except south of Cuba where locally
fresh winds prevail. Upper level zonal flow and subsidence
continues to suppress significant convection.

The surface trough will dissipate tonight. Weak high pressure
north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds
near the coast of Colombia tonight and Sun night. A stronger ridge
will move north of the area on Monday with fresh to strong winds
during the day and near-gale force winds at night through the
middle of the week. Otherwise, generally moderate trade winds will
persist across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W
through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb low is centered over the west Atlantic near 29N65W. An
associated cold front enters the area near 31N59W to 23N61W to
19N68W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 25N between
50W-60W. A surface trough extends southwest from the low to
28N68W. A 1027 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 30N38W.

The cold front will gradually stall tonight as the low pressure
continues to move northeast of the area, allowing winds and seas
to diminish accordingly. High pressure will build off the U.S.
east coast in the wake of the low through Sunday. The next cold
front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast by Sunday
night. A strong ridge behind the front will support the
development of gale-force winds north of 29N between 75W and 78W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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