[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico this
evening. The pressure gradient behind the front will induce gale-
force winds over the SW Gulf Sunday afternoon at 31/1800 UTC from
22N to 25N W of front. Seas are expected to be 8 to 11 ft. These
conditions will prevail through early Monday. Please refer to the
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02
KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 02S30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 03N-05S between 07W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin from the western
Atlantic near 31N78W to the SW Gulf near 22N97W, with fair weather.
The latest ASCAT pass shows light to gentle winds are occurring
in the eastern Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds in the western
Gulf. Upper level subsidence continues to suppress convection.

High pressure across the northern Gulf will shift east today
ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast this evening. The
front is forecast to reach from Panama City to 27N90W to Tampico,
Mexico near 22N97W by Sun morning, then stall just S of Tampa Bay
to 25N90W to the central Gulf of Campeche by Mon morning. Strong
to near gale force northerly winds and building seas will follow
the front over the western Gulf on Sun. Winds are forecast to
reach minimal gale force across the west-central Gulf by Sun
afternoon, and across the SW Gulf by Sun evening. Winds and seas
will gradually diminish through Mon as the front shifts and
weakens southeast of the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends from E Hispaniola near 19N69W to Jamaica near
18N79W. Scattered low-topped showers are within 60 nm of the
trough. Scattered showers are also along the coasts of Costa Rica
and Panama. 10-15 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean. Upper
level zonal flow and subsidence continues to suppress convection.

The surface trough will dissipate today. Weak high pressure N of
the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds near the
coast of Colombia tonight and Sun night. A stronger ridge will
move N of the area on Monday with fresh to strong winds during
the day and near gale force winds at night through the middle of
the week. Otherwise, generally moderate trade winds will persist
across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through the
middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N65W. An
associated cold front enters the area near 31N60W to 24N62W to E
Hispaniola near 19N69W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
N of 26N between 49W-60W. A surface trough extends SW of the low
to 25N65W to 23N70W. A 1029 mb high is over the central Atlantic
near 31N38W. A 1016 mb low is centered over the Canary Islands
near 29N16W.

The cold front will gradually stall tonight as the low pressure
continues to move northeast of the area, allowing winds and seas
to diminish accordingly. High pressure will build off the U.S.
east coast in the wake of the low through Sunday. The next cold
front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast by Sunday
night. A strong ridge behind the front will support the
development of gale force winds N of 29N between 75W and 78W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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