[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A gale is underway off the northeast coast of Florida associated
with a southward moving gale low near 26N74W. The frequent gale
force gusts remains north of 26N and west of 75W with seas 15-18
ft. The gale is forecast to continue until 28/1500 UTC. Please
refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is north of the monsoon trough 03N-02N to 17W-14W.
Scattered moderate conditions are present in the vicinity of the
ITCZ 180 nm north and south of the boundary. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are seen along the coastal waters of Brazil from
08S to the Equator and west of 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb high pressure in the Southeast Plains continues to
spread across the entire basin keeping fair weather across the
region. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NE to E
winds across the eastern and central portion of the basin. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds are in the western Gulf, with moderate
to fresh northeasterly winds in the SW Gulf.

Winds and seas will diminish today over the eastern Gulf. A cold
front will move into the NW Gulf Sun followed by fresh to strong
NE winds and building seas. Gale conditions could be possible
behind the front across the west- central Gulf Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is pushing south across the northwest Caribbean from
the Windward Passage to eastern Jamaica near 17N76W to the Gulf of
Honduras to Belize near 16N88W. Showers are within 100 nm of the
front and are moving south into Honduras along with Belize, and
Nicaragua. Showers are also seen across the central Caribbean
ahead of the front. Scattered showers are also moving across
Puerto Rico and the eastern Caribbean along the Windward Islands.
Moderate to fresh trades are seen across the southern Caribbean
with gentle to moderate trades across the northern Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are observed behind the front across NW
Caribbean west of Jamaica near 78W.

A cold front reaching from the Windward Passage to eastern
Honduras will stall late today before dissipating through late
Fri. Elsewhere generally moderate trade winds will persist across
the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The stationary front enters the waters near 31N58W and extends
westward near 27N74W to a 1012 mb low near 26N74W. From this low,
the cold front continues to extend southward across the eastern
Bahamas into the Windward Passage near 20N74W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is seen near the frontal boundary
from 24N-29N between 67W-70W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms extend further south 260 nm north of the center of
the low. Additionally, a trough is west of the low pressure to the
north of the Bahamas near 28N78W. Farther east, a broad 1030 mb
high pressure is in control of much of the basin.

A stationary front extends from 27N65W to 1012 mb low pressure
near 26N74W with cold front to 20N74W. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish today as the low pressure slowly weakens as it
drifts E toward 26N65W through late Fri. High pressure will build
off the U.S. east coast in the wake of the front through Sun, then
move east ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the
northeast Florida coast early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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