[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Atlantic Gale warning...A strong cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast Tuesday evening. Low pressure will develop along
the front north-northeast of the Bahamas Wednesday night and
Thursday. Strong northerly winds will follow with gale force
winds are expected to develop by 28/1800. The front and low
pressure will drift slowly eastward through Friday. Please refer
to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W to 02S28W to the coast
of Brazil near 06S35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 06N to 00N
between 16W to 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
along the ITCZ from 01N to 03S between 25W to 31W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging continues to prevail across the basin with a
1019 mb high pressure centered over the northwest Gulf.
Meanwhile, a cold front is sinking southward across the western
and central Gulf coast and beginning to enter into the waters.
Along the front, isolated showers with embedded thunderstorms
are moving into the waters. Showers are also noted across the
north and western portions of the basin. Showers are also observed
in the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate north- northeast winds
are observed through most of the basin. Ahead of the approaching
cold front, winds are light to gentle out of the south-
southwest.

Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the cold front over
the northeast Gulf Wednesday as the front sweeps southward and
exits the Gulf late Wednesday. Expect moderate to fresh southerly
return flow over the northwest Gulf by late week as high pressure
builds over the Carolinas in the wake of the front. The next cold
front will move south into the northwest Gulf on Saturday night.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers are noted across the northern and western
Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers are south of Hispaniola
with scattered showers observed across Puerto Rico and the Lesser
Antilles. Showers are also moving into the eastern Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trades are over much of the eastern and central
Caribbean. Strong winds south of 13N are near the Colombia coast
and light to gentle winds are in the northwestern Caribbean. Mid
to upper level ridging is centered over Central America, providing
subsidence across the basin.

High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade
winds off Colombia into mid week. The winds will diminish mid to
late week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of a cold front.
The front will move into the northwest Caribbean on Wednesday,
then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras
through the latter part of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the eastern portion of the basin, a cold front enters the
forecast area near 31N38W to 28N46W. A stationary front extends
from 28N46W to 27N61W. Scattered showers are within 90 nautical
miles within the front between 36W-54W. Meanwhile, a surface
trough extends north of Hispaniola from 26N69W to 21N71W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are to the north and
east of this trough from 30N-23N between 61W-69W. Scattered
showers are also to the east of the trough west of 64W. Farther
west, a line of showers and thunderstorms are observed off the
central Florida coast from 31N78W to 29N80W. Surface ridging is
across the basin with a 1027 mb high pressure as the anchor near
34N53W. Over the eastern Atlantic, a 1007 mb low near 28N16W has
an occluded front extending to the east with a cold front
extending along the Western Sahara coast and a warm front just off
the coast of Morocco. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 100 nautical miles of the low.

The broad inverted trough north of Hispaniola will meander about
this general area through Wednesday. A strong cold front will
move off the northeast Florida coast Tuesday evening and sink
gradually southeast through Thursday. Gale conditions are
possible north of the front Wednesday. Low pressure will develop
along the front to the north northeast of the northwest Bahamas
Wednesday through Thursday with strong to gale force winds across
northern portions of the low. The low pressure will drift slowly
eastward through late week and become nearly stationary along 65W
late Friday through Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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