[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N06W
to 02S12W. The ITCZ continues from 02S12W to the coast of Brazil
near 05S36W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted
south of 03N and west of 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb surface high is located over the central Gulf near
28N88W. With this, moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the
basin. No deep convection is present across the Gulf as strong
upper-level subsidence prevails.

High pressure will slide east into the west Atlantic through the
weekend. This will produce fresh southeast return flow west of
92W this afternoon and evening. A cold front will sink southward
across the northern Gulf waters by early next week and reach the
Yucatan Channel on Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
expected behind the front east of 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from east Cuba near 20N76W to 15N80W.
A surface trough continues from that point southwest to 11N82W.
Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm n either side of the
front/trough. Scattered showers are occurring over the Greater
Antilles. Moderate trades prevail across the basin. The exception,
as usual, is the area within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia,
where winds normally pulse to the fresh category overnight.

The front will drift southeast across the west Caribbean today
before dissipating. Expect moderate to fresh northerly winds
behind the front through Sat. The remnants of the front will drift
westward across the northwest Caribbean as a trough through the
weekend. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected along the
coast of Colombia through mid-week. Northeast swell from the
Atlantic will move through the Caribbean passages east of
Hispaniola through late Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to the eastern Bahamas near
22N72W. The front then becomes stationary from that point to
21N75W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the front. A
trough extends behind the front from 32N65W to 26N71W. Southwest
winds north of 27N ahead of the cold front are ranging between
moderate to strong breeze. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, tranquil
conditions continue as surface ridging prevails.

The front is expected to reach far eastern Cuba near 75W by this
afternoon, then begin to dissipate from 24N65W to the SE Bahamas
along 23N75W by Sun afternoon. Swell generated by the front will
dominate the waters east of the Bahamas through the weekend. A new
cold front is forecast to reach the north waters late on Tue and
sink southward across the northwest half of the area through mid-
week. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front Tue
through Wed near Bermuda, and produce strong to near gale force
northeast winds across the far northern waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net