[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the coast of
Brazil near 05S36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 00N-08N between 10W-21W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 00N-05S between 25W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N93W.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail throughout the
basin, with seas generally in the 3-5 ft range. In the upper
levels, zonal flow is over the W Gulf W of 90W. A trough is over
the E Gulf with axis along 78W. Strong subsidence is over the
Gulf.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf region over the next
several days producing moderate easterly winds. A cold front will
sweep into the northern Gulf on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from E Cuba near 22N77W to Nicaragua near
12N83W. Scattered showers are noted on satellite within 60 nm of
the front to include E Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered showers are
over the Leeward and Windward Islands and Hispaniola. Scattered
showers are over the Gulf of Honduras, and inland over Belize.
Guatemala, W Honduras, Costa Rica, and W Panama. Scattered
moderate convection is inland over N Colombia. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds are noted west of the front. Fresh to strong winds
are noted just off the coast of Colombia, with gentle to moderate
trades prevailing elsewhere. In the upper levels, a large ridge
is over the Caribbean and Central America with axis along 70W.
Strong subsidence covers the entire area.

The cold front will drift SE and gradually dissipate today. Fresh
to strong NE winds expected at night near the coast of Colombia
through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N60W to 26N70W
to E Cuba near 21N76W. A reinforcing cold front extends from
31N67W to E Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the front. Surface ridging is over the central and eastern
Atlantic N of 15N between 20W-55W. Moderate to fresh trades
prevail over the deep tropics, while gentle to moderate winds
prevail over much of the remainder of the discussion area. Of
note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W
Atlantic W of 70W supporting the fronts. An upper level low is
centered SW of the Canary Islands near 27N19W producing scattered
showers.

Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will propagate E, and merge
with the stationary front later today. This front will become
elongated from 26N65W to the Turks and Caicos by Sun. Swell
generated by these fronts will dominate the waters E of the
Bahamas through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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