[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone coast
near 09N13W to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W to the
coast of Brazil near 06S36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 07W and 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure continues to build across the Gulf, with
high pressure of 1023 mb centered over the NW Gulf near 28N94W. A
surface trough is along the Mexican coastline in the SW Gulf from
22N97W to 19N95W. Scattered showers are noted on satellite
adjacent to this trough. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
prevail throughout the basin, with seas generally in the 3-5 ft
range.

The surface high will shift slowly ENE through Sun. This will
produce a moderate to locally fresh wind flow across the basin,
except off the W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where late evening
local effects will keep brief periods of NE winds to 20 kt.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front extends from E Cuba near 21N76W
to SW of Jamaica near 18N80W. A reinforcing cold front extends
from central Cuba near 22N78W to SW of Jamaica near 16N81W.
Scattered showers are noted on satellite within 60 nm of the
fronts to include E Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered showers are over
the Leeward and Windward Islands and Hispaniola. Scattered
showers are over the Gulf of Honduras, and inland over Belize.
Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras. and Costa Rica. Scattered
moderate convection is inland over N Colombia. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds are noted west of the front. Fresh to strong
winds are noted just off the coast of Colombia, with gentle to
moderate trades prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range
off the coast of Colombia, and 2-4 ft across the remainder of the
Caribbean waters. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the
Caribbean and Central America with axis along 70W. Strong
subsidence covers the entire area.

The cold front will propagate SE, merge with the stationary front,
then reach from the Windward Passage to near the border of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica Fri, before dissipating. Elsewhere, a
weak pressure gradient across the basin will maintain gentle to
moderate tradewinds through early Sun. High pres will shift across
the W Atlc Sun through Mon to bring a return to more typical
fresh to strong tradewinds across east and central portions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N61W to 26N70W to
E Cuba near 21N76W. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N70W
to the N Bahamas near 25N76W to central Cuba near 22N78W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. Surface ridging
is over the central and eastern Atlantic N of 15N between 20W-55W.
Fresh to near gale force winds prevail N of 28N within 180 nm E
of the cold front. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the deep
tropics, while gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the
remainder of the discussion area. NW swell propagating across the
SW N Atlc is helping for seas in the 8-11 ft range over the open
waters west of the cold front. West of the Bahamas, seas are in
the 1-3 ft range. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level
trough is over the W Atlantic W of 70W supporting the fronts. An
upper level low is centered SW of the Canary Islands near 27N19W
producing scattered showers.

Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will propagate E, merge with
the stationary front on Fri, then reach from 27N65W to the Turks
and Caicos Islands to eastern Cuba by Fri night. Swell generated
by these fronts will dominate the waters E of the Bahamas through
the upcoming weekend. High pressure will shift across the W Atlc
late Sun through Mon to bring a return to fresh to strong
tradewinds S of 28N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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