[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Sierra Leone coast near
07N12W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 01S27W to the
coast of Brazil near 06S35W. Isolated moderate convection is from
01N- 02S between 27W-31W. Isolated moderate convection is also
noted from 05N- 05S between 15W- 23W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front moving across the northwest Gulf of Mexico is
dissipating. It stretches from Destin FL to just south of Corpus
Christi TX. Meanwhile, surface high pressure continues to build
across the Gulf. This ridging is anchored by a 1026 mb high
located in the central Plains of the U.S. Farther south, a trough
is along the Mexican coastline in the southwest Gulf of Mexico
from 23N98W to 19N95W. Scattered showers are seen on satellite
adjacent to this trough along with the southeast Gulf. Winds are
generally out of the north- northwest 10-20 kts throughout the
basin. In response to the trough in the southwest Gulf, some winds
are out of the northeast to the east of this feature.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf region over the next several days
producing mainly a moderate to locally fresh wind flow, except off
the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where late evening local
effects will keep brief periods of NE winds to 20 kt.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from east Cuba near 21N78W southwestward
into northern Honduras near 16N88W. Along this front, scattered
showers are seen on satellite stretching into the Caribbean in
addition to Belize and Honduras. Showers are also ahead of the
front from far eastern Cuba to the north of Jamaica. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are moving across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico
along with the Lesser Antilles. Farther south, showers were moving
off the northern coast of Venezuela into the central Caribbean.
Trade winds are moderate to fresh across most of the basin. In the
northwest Caribbean near the front, winds are out of the northwest
between moderate to fresh behind the front. Light southerly winds
are ahead of the front. An upper level ridge is bringing strong
subsidence to the basin, inhibiting convection across the area.

The cold front is allowing for a relaxed pressure gradient in the
south- central Caribbean. However, fresh to strong winds are
expected to pulse at night within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia
through Friday night. The cold front will drift southeast today
and tonight while gradually dissipating. Gentle to moderate winds
will dominate across the remainder of the basin through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary cold front in the western Atlantic extends southwest
from a 1011 mb low near 29N68W to another 1013 mb low off the
north- central coast of Cuba near 22N78W. East of the 1011 mb low,
a stationary front stretches eastward from the low into the
central Atlantic. Scattered showers are within 130 nm along the
front. Another cold front that is associated with a deepening 1009
mb low off the U.S. Mid- Atlantic coast enters the waters near
31N76W to the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are seen off
the southeast Florida coast near this front. A pre-frontal trough
is also to the east of this cold front anchored by a 1013 mb low
near 28N74W to 23N81W. Across the rest of the basin, surface
ridging is over the central and eastern Atlantic north of 15N and
east of 69W.

The primary cold front will remain nearly stationary today and
tonight. Then, the cold front off the Florida east coast will
merge with the stationary front on Friday, and the merged front
will extends from 27N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands and
eastern Cuba by Friday night. Swell generated by these fronts
will dominate the waters east of the Bahamas through the upcoming
weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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