[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

....Atlantic Gale Warning...

A 1010 mb low is centered over the western Atlantic near 29N70W.
A stationary front extends from 31N64W to the low. A stationary
front extends from the low to 22N80W. A Gale Warning is in effect
for the area north of the front and low and east of 73W. Seas in
this area will range between 12 and 18 ft. These conditions will
continue until 21/1200 UTC. Please read the latest


A stationary front over the western
Atlantic stretches from a 1016 mb low near 33N78W off the South
Carolina coast to Daytona Beach Florida. Farther south, a frontal
system, related to the Gale Warning, is analyzed. A stationary
front is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to a 1010 mb low east of
the Bahamas near 28N72W, then a cold front continues from the low
to 23N80W. Scattered showers are observed along the stationary
front and near the low. East of these features, surface ridging
is extending across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1035 mb high near 47N06W. High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the
AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 11N16W to
05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 00N30W to the coast of
South America near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection is from
07N-06S between 00W-25W. Scattered showers are from 00N-03S
between 25W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N94W.
5-15 anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf with weakest winds
around the high and strongest winds over the Straits of Florida.
The W Gulf W of 92W and S of 27N has broken low clouds. Scattered
showers are over the SW Gulf. In the upper levels, a broad ridge
is over the Gulf of Mexico with strong subsidence.

High pressure along the SE Texas coast extends SE to the
NW Caribbean, and will dominate the Gulf region over the next
several days as the high slides slowly E. This pattern will
produce mainly a moderate to locally fresh wind flow, except off
the W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where late evening local
effects will produce brief periods of NE winds to 20 kt.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1013 mb low is centered over central Cuba near 22N80W. A cold
front extends SW from the low to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. 15-20 kt
northerly winds are over the NW Caribbean N of the front. 10-20 kt
tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean. Scattered
showers are over the Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Costa
Rica, W Panama, and NW Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is
over portions of N Colombia. In the upper levels, a large ridge is
over the Caribbean and Central America with axis along 82W. Strong
subsidence covers the entire area.

The cold front is allowing for a relaxed pressure gradient in the
south-central Caribbean. However, fresh to strong winds are
expected to pulse at night within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia
through Thu night. The cold front will move southwest and extend
from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Thu
evening while gradually dissipating. Gentle to moderate winds
will dominate across the remainder of the basin through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to
the section above for details. A 1010 mb low is centered over the
western Atlantic near 29N70W. A stationary front extends from
31N64W to the low. A stationary front extends from the low to
22N80W. Isolated moderate convection is from 27N-31N between
64W-69W. Scattered showers are also over the S Bahamas. Surface
ridging is over the central and eastern Atlantic N of 15N and E of
55W.

As the W Atlantic low shifts NE over the next 24 hours, it will
drag the cold front to 30N65W to another 1011 mb low pressure near
28N70W then to 23N78W by Thu morning. A reinforcing cold front
will merge with the stationary front on Fri, and extend from
28N65W to eastern Cuba. Swell generated by these fronts will
dominate the waters E of the Bahamas through the upcoming weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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