[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
655 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

....Atlantic Gale Warning...

On 20/1200 UTC, a 1012 mb low is forecast to be centered over the
W Atlantic near 29N71W. A gale is forecast N of 30N between 68W
and 73W with NE to E winds and seas to 13 ft. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from 00N19W to 02S30W to the coast
of South America near 03S40W. Isolated moderate convection is SE
of the monsoon trough from 06N-04S between 00W-12W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01N-02S between 31W-
36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 20/0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Straits of
Florida near 23N80W to a 1013 mb low near 22N83W. A stationary
front continues to the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N90W. A
reinforcing cold front extends from S Florida near 25N80W to
24N82W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the SE Gulf of
Mexico from W Cuba to N Florida E of 84W. Elsewhere, a surface
trough is over the W Gulf from 24N97W to 21N95W. Scattered
showers are over the W Gulf W of 94W. 15-25 kt NE winds covers
the Gulf. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Gulf with
axis over Mexico along 100W. A trough is over the E Gulf with axis
over Florida along 80W. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough
axis over the W Atlantic enhancing showers.

A tight surface pressure gradient along Florida and the NE gulf
support NE strong to near gale force winds in the SE Gulf S of
25N. The front will shift SE and exit the region today. High
pressure will then dominate the entire Gulf through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has entered the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers
are over the far NW Caribbean N of a line from W Cuba near 22N78W
to N Belize near 18N88W. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the S
Caribbean S of 18N with strongest winds along the coast of N
Colombia. Scattered showers are noted over the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, E Cuba, Jamaica, and the SW Caribbean S
of 12N to include Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. A broad
upper level ridge continues to sit over the Caribbean with strong
subsidence suppressing convection.

Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night within 90 nm
off the coast of Colombia mainly due to the nocturnal drainage
flow. Fresh to strong winds are also possible in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Otherwise, the tail end of a stationary front extends
from western Cuba SW to just N of Belize. The front will stall
from central Cuba to NE Honduras adjacent waters by Thu morning
and dissipate at night. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate
across the remainder basin through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to
the section above for details. A stationary front is over the W
Atlantic from 31N62W to a 1013 mb low E of the N Bahamas near
26N76W. A stationary front continues to the Straits of Florida
near 23N80W. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N64W to S
Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers are over most of the W
Atlantic W of 62W and N of 24N. A 1023 mb high is centered over
the central Atlantic near 30N49W with ridging extending SE to the
Leeward Islands. Of note in the upper levels, a trough is over
the W Atlantic W of 70W enhancing showers. An upper level low is
centered W of the Canary Islands near 31N24W producing scattered
showers N of 24N between 14W-30W.

Over the W Atlantic, NE swell will propagate across the northern
waters through Thu. However, swell associated with a reinforcing
cold front will prevail through Sun. This second front will extend
from near 25N65W to north-central Dominican Republic by Fri
evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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