[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
728 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Northeast gale-force winds are expected again tonight near the
coast of Colombia from 19/0000 UTC to 19/1500 UTC. Thereafter, a
surface low centered northeast of the Bahamas will weaken the
ridge over the western Atlantic and allow the nocturnal gale-force
winds to diminish. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to the coast of
Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm on
either sides of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. The strongest activity
remains inland near the ITCZ over Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the southern portion of the
basin, from 24N80W to 24N86W to a 1014 mb low near 21N93W. A
surface trough is noted from the low to 21N90W. Scattered showers
are noted along and north of the front, covering the majority of
the basin at this time. Surface ridging is building in the wake of
the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly
winds west of 90W, while gentle to moderate north/northeasterly
winds prevail east of 90W.

Strong easterly winds will cover almost the entire Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, then the far eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday as the
front exits the southeast Gulf. Winds could reach near gale-
force over parts of the southeast Gulf, as weak low pressure
center moves along the front Tuesday. A new surface ridge will
build south across the area by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trades cover most of the eastern and central Caribbean,
with strong to near-gale winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia.
Gentle winds cover the west Caribbean west of 79W. No significant
convection is over the basin at this time, other than typical
scattered low-topped showers moving quickly with the trade winds
over portions of the Greater Antilles as well as Central America.

High pressure centered over the Atlantic to the northeast of the
basin will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the
central Caribbean through Wednesday, before the high pressure
center moves east, and the wind speeds diminish for the remainder
of the week. The trade winds will be pulsing to minimal gale-
force along the coast of Colombia, from tonight until Tuesday
morning. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the
remainder of the area through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 mb surface low is centered near 29N74W, with cold front
extending from the low to 24N80W. A stationary front extends from
the low to 31N68W. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity
of the low and front mainly west of 70W. To the east, a 1022 mb
high is centered near 28N54W. A 1015 mb surface low is centered
near 28N37W, with trough extending from the low to 20N42W.
Scattered showers prevail with the low. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb high
centered north of the area near 43N19W.

The frontal boundary will shift slowly southeast through midweek,
then extend from 31N57W to eastern Cuba by Thursday afternoon in
response to the low pressure moving northeast away from the
Bahamas along the front. The low over the central Atlantic will
dissipate by Tuesday.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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